Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Price Target to $4000 on Central Bank Demand, Geopolitical Risks

Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $4000 per ounce, driven by robust central bank gold buying demand and geopolitical risks. The price of gold is expected to continue its strong upward trend, with a projected mid-2026 peak of a historical high of $4000 per ounce. The current gold-silver ratio has climbed from 84.7 last year to 102, reflecting a significant premium advantage of gold over silver. At the time of writing, the spot gold price is reported at $3387 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 28%, while silver has only risen by 12% to $32.4 per ounce during the same period.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that an oversupply of Asian photovoltaic capacity has led to weak industrial demand for silver, coupled with the Trump administration's new tariff policy exacerbating the global economic recession risk, making gold, which combines financial and hedging attributes, more favored by funds. Goldman Sachs expects the year-end spot gold price to potentially reach $3700 per ounce, and in the event of a substantial global economic recession, accelerated inflows of ETF funds linked to gold could push the price to around $3880 per ounce by the end of the year to a new high.

Market data shows that major global gold ETFs have attracted over $12 billion in the past two months, setting a record high for the same period since 2020. Bank of America strategist Hartnett's suggested "BIG Strategy" (US bonds + international stocks + gold combination) continues to outperform the broad US stock market, and the excess return of the VanEck Physical Gold ETF this year partly stems from its 25% maximum allocation to gold. HSBC's multi-asset strategy director Max Kettner recently downgraded US stock ratings, emphasizing increasing gold holdings to address "stagflation-like" risks.

BiyaPay analysts particularly pointed out that the current market's enthusiasm for gold ETF allocations may continue to be released in the latter half of this year and even next year, becoming an important driving force supporting the upward movement of gold prices. In addition to the ongoing escalation of geopolitical risks and the Trump administration's escalation of tariff policies sparking a global trade friction escalation, macro variables such as gold as the "ultimate safe-haven asset" strategic value are further highlighted, and investors' long-term demand for gold allocation remains resilient.

BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, supports users to directly allocate to gold ETFs (such as GLD, IAU) and gold stocks through the app, diversifying investment portfolios to reduce the impact of market volatility on costs while capturing the long-term appreciation potential of precious metals. The platform enables instant exchange between 30 fiat currencies and 200 cryptocurrencies, allowing users to seamlessly participate in gold asset trading in the US stock securities markets through 1:1 equivalent exchange of USD via USDT, with significant advantages such as spot and contract Maker's zero transaction fees.