Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Price Forecast 8% Amid U.S. Import Surge

The recent investigation under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act has led to significant market distortions, with the U.S. aggressively importing copper, causing shortages in non-U.S. regions and raising concerns about regional supply shortages. This has prompted Goldman Sachs to revise its copper price forecast for the second half of the year, predicting a peak in August.

Since the initiation of the Section 232 copper import investigation, the U.S. has imported approximately 400,000 tons of copper, equivalent to 6-7 months of import demand. This has resulted in copper shortages in non-U.S. regions. The potential threat of import tariffs has led to a global shift in copper supplies towards the U.S., causing the available inventory on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to drop by about 80% this year, currently equivalent to less than a day's global usage.

Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, has adjusted its 2025 second-half LME copper price forecast from 9,140 USD per ton to 9,890 USD per ton, predicting a peak of 10,050 USD per ton in August. The firm attributes this price increase to global supply imbalances, with the U.S. importing more copper than initially anticipated, and China's economic activity remaining resilient. Goldman Sachs expects China's second-quarter real GDP growth rate to be slightly above 5%, with retail sales maintaining strength.

The firm also slightly lowered its 2026 copper price forecast from 10,170 USD per ton to 10,000 USD per ton, with a December peak of 10,350 USD per ton. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about 2027 copper prices, forecasting an average price of 10,750 USD per ton, a level sufficient to incentivize supply investments in Chile's brownfield mines.

The timing of tariff implementation is a critical variable. Under the baseline scenario, with an 80% probability, a 25% tariff on U.S. copper imports is expected to be implemented by September. In this scenario, U.S. copper inventory is projected to increase by 150,000 tons in the third quarter and decrease by 120,000 tons in the fourth quarter after tariff implementation. Conversely, inventory in the rest of the world is expected to continue declining in the third quarter and increase in the fourth quarter.

If tariff implementation is delayed beyond expectations, U.S. imports will continue into the fourth quarter, further tightening supplies in non-U.S. markets. In a no-tariff scenario, which Goldman Sachs considers highly unlikely, COMEX prices would fall below LME prices due to the high U.S. inventory, which would need to be exported or delivered to U.S. LME warehouses.

Goldman Sachs reiterates its trading recommendation to go long on the December COMEX-LME copper spread, noting that the market significantly underestimates the possibility of a 25% or even 50% tariff. If a 50% tariff is implemented, the December COMEX-LME price spread could widen to nearly 5,000 USD per ton, a significant increase from the current 1,350 USD per ton.