Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 Gold Forecast to $4,900/oz: A Strategic Case for Gold in a Deteriorating Macro Environment

The recent revision of Goldman Sachs' 2026 gold forecast to $4,900 per ounce-from a prior target of $4,300-reflects a profound shift in the global macroeconomic landscape. This adjustment is not merely a speculative bet but a response to structural forces reshaping the demand for gold. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are accelerating their accumulation of the metal at an unprecedented pace, while the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot and inflationary pressures are amplifying gold's appeal as a hedge against systemic risks.

Central Bank Dynamics: A Structural Shift in Reserve Management

Central banks have become the most significant drivers of gold demand, with purchases surging to an average of 80 tonnes per month in 2025 and projected to remain at 70 tonnes per month in 2026, according to a Goldman Sachs report. This trend is rooted in a strategic reorientation of global reserve management. Emerging-market central banks, including those in China, Turkey, and Poland, are diversifying away from dollar-dominated assets to insulate themselves from geopolitical volatility and currency devaluation risks. For instance, the People's Bank of China added 316 metric tons of gold since 2022, while Poland's National Bank increased its gold reserves by 90 tonnes in 2024 alone, aiming to raise gold's share in its reserves to 30%, according to a Discovery Alert report.

The structural underpinning of this shift lies in the stark imbalance between developed and emerging markets in gold holdings. Emerging-market central banks remain significantly underweight in gold compared to their developed counterparts, creating a long runway for accumulation. Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks could add 710 tonnes of gold per quarter in 2025, a pace that would push gold's share in global reserves from 12.9% in late 2021 to 18.4% by year-end 2024, per a Gold Price Outlook. This demand is further reinforced by gold's reclassification under Basel III as a Tier 1 asset, equaling cash and government bonds in risk-weighted terms-a regulatory change that has elevated its attractiveness for both central and commercial banks, according to American Standard Gold.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Inflation, Rate Cuts, and Currency Devaluation

Gold's ascent is also being propelled by macroeconomic dynamics. Global inflation, projected to average 3.5% in 2025, remains a persistent headwind, particularly in emerging markets where currency depreciation exacerbates purchasing-power erosion, as noted by Gold Buyers Africa. The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which began in December 2024 and continued with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in September 2025, has further reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, according to BBC live coverage. With the Fed's key rate now at 4%, down from 5.5% in 2023, the real return on gold-once a liability in a high-interest-rate environment-has become increasingly compelling.

Currency devaluation trends are compounding this dynamic. As the U.S. dollar's strength wanes against emerging-market currencies, gold becomes relatively more affordable, spurring demand in regions grappling with inflation and capital controls. For example, the National Bank of Kazakhstan added 8 tonnes of gold in August 2025 alone, reflecting a broader trend of hedging against dollar volatility, according to World Gold Council data. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariff policies and Middle East conflicts, have further entrenched gold's role as a safe-haven asset, as J.P. Morgan research notes.

The Strategic Case for Gold: A Deteriorating Macro Environment

The convergence of these factors creates a compelling case for gold as a strategic asset. Central banks' sustained demand-averaging 15 tonnes of net additions in August 2025-has established a price floor for the metal, absorbing a significant portion of annual mine production and insulating it from cyclical supply fluctuations, according to a Deriv analysis. Meanwhile, the Fed's accommodative stance and the erosion of the dollar's dominance in global reserves are likely to prolong gold's bull market.

For investors, the implications are clear. Gold is no longer a speculative play but a cornerstone of portfolio resilience in an era of macroeconomic fragility. As Goldman Sachs' revised forecast underscores, the structural tailwinds-geopolitical diversification, regulatory changes, and monetary policy shifts-point to a sustained ascent in gold prices, with $4,900 per ounce within reach by mid-2026.