Goldman Sachs Predicts Pickup in French M&A Despite Political Turmoil

Goldman Sachs' Celine-Marie Mechain expects French M&A deal activity to pick up in the second half of the year despite political turmoil. Mechain remains positive on France's economic outlook and sees the country as an attractive investment area. Goldman Sachs has grown its headcount in Paris to over 400 from 170 in 2019.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Paris Co-Head, Celine-Marie Mechain, has expressed optimism about the French M&A market despite the country's ongoing political turmoil. In a recent Bloomberg TV interview, Mechain stated that deal activity in France is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [1].

Mechain's positive outlook comes amidst a government crisis in France, where Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called a no-confidence vote for September 8, which is likely to force his resignation. Despite this political instability, Mechain remains confident in France's investment potential. She noted that the country remains an attractive area for investments due to various reasons, including its strategic location and economic strengths [1].

Goldman Sachs has significantly expanded its presence in Paris over the past few years. The bank's headcount in the city has grown to over 400 from 170 in 2019, making Paris a major European hub for the firm. Mechain's positive assessment of France's economic outlook is in line with Goldman Sachs' strategic expansion in the region [1].

The political turmoil in France has led investors to position for heightened political risk, potentially derailing the nascent economic recovery. Some companies have delayed hiring and investment decisions as a result [1]. However, Mechain's optimism suggests that the market may soon see a pickup in activity, indicating that investors are beginning to view the political uncertainty as a short-term challenge rather than a long-term barrier.

In another development, Goldman Sachs has warned that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are fully invested, which could lead to significant sell-offs in September. The firm's liquidity analysis team highlighted that CTAs have exhausted their buying power, which could trigger forced liquidations if the market enters a downward spiral. This situation is exacerbated by the potential for up to $736.9 billion in sell-offs if the market declines [2].

Despite these challenges, Goldman Sachs noted that institutional investors' overall positions remain relatively moderate. The firm emphasized that while the market is not without support, the current environment suggests that September could be particularly challenging. Historical data shows that September is the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 index, with an average return of -1.17% [2].

John Waldron, Goldman Sachs' COO, sold $13.6 million in shares at $745.25 per share, retaining approximately 300,000 shares. The sale occurred amid a 32% year-to-date stock surge driven by regulatory relief and tax cut expectations. Waldron's sale is viewed as routine cash management, not a negative signal, aligning with standard executive liquidity practices [3].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/goldman-s-mechain-says-france-m-a-to-pick-up-despite-politics
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/goldman-sachs-warns-73-7-cta-sell-risk-september-2509/
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/goldman-sachs-waldron-sells-13-6m-stock-32-year-date-surge-2509/