Goldman Sachs: U.S. Beer Sales Down 1.9% This Year, 1.0% in 2024

Goldman Sachs has released a research report on the U.S. beer market, focusing on the views of beer distributors regarding market trends. The report indicates that the beer market this year performed poorly during the Memorial Day weekend, failing to meet expectations.

According to the report, approximately 55% of distributors believe that the sales trend during Memorial Day this year was weaker compared to last year, with about 13% of respondents stating that the beer sales trend was significantly weaker than the previous year.

In terms of brand performance, distributors noted that Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD.US) showed the strongest sales trend during the Memorial Day weekend, with 35% of distributors reporting an increase in sales compared to last year. This was followed by Constellation Brands (STZ.US) and Boston Beer Company (SAM.US). Heineken (HEINY.US), however, performed poorly, with 66% of distributors reporting a decrease in sales compared to the previous year.

Goldman Sachs attributes the challenging macroeconomic environment as the primary factor affecting beer sales. Consumers have less disposable income and are prioritizing non-essential purchases. Additionally, recent policy changes and unfavorable weather conditions have impacted beer consumption.

Looking ahead, distributors are generally cautious about the prospects for the summer sales season, with 56% of respondents expecting sales to be weaker than the same period last year. Furthermore, distributors anticipate that beer category sales will decelerate further this year, declining by 1.9%, and by 1.0% in 2024.

Given the challenging macroeconomic environment, Goldman Sachs has adopted a selective strategy to identify the most promising targets. Based on this, Goldman Sachs has reiterated its "buy" rating for Constellation Brands, as distributors have indicated some potential positive signals in the company's monthly sales trends, particularly an acceleration in May.

Goldman Sachs has maintained its "buy" rating for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP.US), as the company's Miller beer has gained more market share.

Finally, Goldman Sachs remains cautious about Boston Beer Company, despite the potential for growth in its Sun Cruiser brand. However, the growth trend of Twisted Tea is slowing down, and the sales of Truly continue to decline.