Goldman Reports 67% of Tariff Costs Shifted to Consumers by October

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its stance on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, maintaining that average Americans are absorbing nearly two-thirds of the costs from President Donald Trump’s broad-based trade policies [1]. This position has drawn sharp criticism from Trump, who has personally attacked the firm and its economists, rejecting their conclusions as inaccurate and misleading [2]. The firm’s research, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, argues that while U.S. businesses initially bore the brunt of the costs, the burden is increasingly shifting to consumers [3].

According to the latest Goldman report, as of June 2025, consumers had already taken on 22% of the total tariff costs. Under current trends, this share is projected to jump to 67% by October 2025. Meanwhile, the share of costs absorbed by U.S. businesses is expected to drop from 64% to 8%, while foreign suppliers are forecast to absorb a modest increase from 14% to 25% [1]. The findings suggest a clear shift in the burden of tariffs from firms to consumers, who are now facing higher prices at the point of sale.

Goldman economists also warned that the inflationary effects of tariffs remain significant, with core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to reach 3.2% by year-end if the current tariff regime persists. Of this, around 0.7 percentage points would be directly attributable to tariffs—well above the underlying trend inflation rate of 2.4% [1]. These projections raise concerns about the long-term inflationary pressures created by the administration’s trade policies.

President Trump has consistently disputed these findings, claiming that foreign countries and governments are the ones paying for the tariffs. In a series of posts on Truth Social, he accused Goldman CEO David Solomon and chief economist Jan Hatzius of making “bad predictions” and of being “wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else.” He has further argued that tariffs are generating substantial revenue and that U.S. consumers are not being significantly affected [2].

Analysts suggest that Trump’s attacks on Wall Street figures are part of a broader strategy to reinforce a pro-tariff narrative, even as evidence shows that consumers are increasingly bearing the cost of higher prices. The debate underscores a deeper divide between the administration’s economic messaging and the analysis from financial institutions, which emphasize the pass-through effects of tariffs onto households [1].

Goldman’s position has been echoed by other analysts, including the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, who argue that the full economic impact of tariffs will become more apparent as they become embedded in supply chains and pricing structures [1]. With the July jobs report showing weaker-than-expected labor market growth, concerns about inflation and consumer affordability are likely to remain at the forefront of economic discussions.

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[1] https://fortune.com/2025/08/13/goldman-sachs-tariffs-donald-trump-david-solomon-dj/

[2] https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60482477/us-stock-market-preview-all-three-major-stock-index-futures

[3] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariffs-live-updates-markets-rise-with-china-truce-tariff-revenue-inflation-in-check-200619486.html