Goldman's Pasquariello Says Bull Market Lives-But Post-Labor Supply and Semis Could Make September Ugly First

Pasquariello's core call: bull trend intact, but September likely to be rough

Goldman Sachs' late-summer framework stays cautiously constructive. Tony Pasquariello argues the S&P 500 breakout remains intact, positioning is healthier than it was coming out of Q2, and the fundamental backdrop still supports continuation of the bull trend. September, however, is not expected to be a straight line.

That leaves the market in a narrow zone: not a clean rally, but also not an obvious regime break. The more balanced read is that this looks like a bull-market test rather than the start of a bear market.

Why September is the pressure point

One reason for caution is that the market has already shown a real stress signal. The Dow tumbled over 750 points as the Fed decision approached, and chip stocks wobbled at the same time. Because semiconductor leadership often matters for broader sentiment, that kind of move can make the tape feel fragile quickly.

Goldman's view is that the market probably needs to do some work after Labor Day because of supply and seasonality. That does not invalidate the uptrend. It just suggests September may bring more volatility and less ease than recent sessions.

If the breakout holds, this looks like a pause that clears out excess. If it fails, the move may deserve a more serious risk reset.

Why Goldman sees less friction, even with the broader trend still healthy

September-style churn can improve positioning

A market that churns in place gives investors time to question the rally. That can be healthy. It can force a reset in expectations, positioning, and the kind of complacency that often makes later pullbacks worse.

That is different from saying the bull market is over. Goldman's case is more nuanced: the S&P 500 breakout remains intact, positioning has improved since the end of Q2, and the broader backdrop still supports a continuation. In plain terms, the trend can remain alive even if the easy upside phase cools off.

Macro stress is real, but not the obvious base case

The macro picture is not perfect, but the available evidence still points more toward pressure than panic. Low unemployment can support the economy, while stretched Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and crude-oil prices can still test equities.

For now, that looks less like a recession call and more like a reminder that the market may have to earn its next move. The key question is whether macro pressures are strong enough to break the trend-or just strong enough to make September uneven.