Goldman: U.S. auto market experiences a divergence in February, with General Motors (GM.US) seeing an 8% increase in sales, Ford (F.US) experiencing a 9% decrease, and Tesla (TSLA.US) experiencing a 23% decline.

Goldman released a research report stating that according to Motor Intelligence, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales (SAAR) of light vehicles in the US in February was approximately 16.3 million units, a YoY decrease of about 1% (but with one less selling day than the same period last year), and a MoM increase of about 11%. Among them, the sales of sedans decreased by about 4% YoY, those of pickup trucks increased by about 10% YoY, and those of SUVs decreased by 4% YoY. Specifically, according to Motor Intelligence, Ford Motor (F.US) saw a YoY decline of 9% in February, while General Motors (GM.US) saw a YoY growth of 8% in February. Ford previously stated that some of its models were undergoing a refresh, and the sales of Super Duty, Navigator, and Expedition would be affected in the first quarter of 2025. The sales of electric vehicles in February grew by about 11% YoY, while those of hybrid vehicles grew by about 37% YoY; pure electric vehicles accounted for 8% of the total sales in the month. Specifically, Tesla (TSLA.US) saw a YoY decline of about 23% (consistent with the production interruption and delivery dynamics of Model Y), while Model 3 saw a YoY growth of 42%; General Motors saw the new models such as Optiq, Equinox EV, and Blazer EV continue to ramp up, but Lyriq saw a YoY decline of 28%; Ford Motor saw Mach-E grow 13% YoY, but F-150 Lightning declined 15% YoY. According to Motor Intelligence, incentive spending per vehicle in February was about US$3,385, up 20% YoY but down 3% MoM. In addition, the auto inventory in February was flat or slightly down from the previous month to about 2.77 million units, still slightly below the historical range of 3-4 million units, but on a daily basis, it has returned to normal levels. Among the three major US automakers, the inventory of General Motors and Stellantis changed little, while that of Ford Motor declined about 5% MoM, in line with its inventory adjustment plan (related to model refresh) in the fourth-quarter earnings call in 2024. Goldman said that the report was in line with its forecast of maintaining the SAAR at a low level of 16 million units in 2025 (i.e., low single-digit growth YoY from 2024). Goldman added that the adjustment of inventory levels was a positive signal that would help limit price declines. However, Goldman noted that the industry still faced some short-term challenges, including the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imported vehicles from Mexico and Canada.