Goldman anticipates a 20% increase in the CSI 300 index by 2025. Several foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets.
1min read China's National Bureau of Statistics recently released data showing that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 was RMB13.49084 trillion, up 5.0% year-on-year in real terms.
Looking back at the past year, although the global economy faced many challenges and the Chinese market experienced several fluctuations, the positive signals in macro policies and other areas have attracted the attention of foreign institutions.
21st Century Business reporter learned that several foreign institutions recently released their 2025 global investment outlook, continuing to be bullish on the Chinese market.
Among them, the economic team of Wall Street financial giant Goldman released a research report stating that the government has launched strong policy support measures, not only helping to ease the real estate market and external challenges, but also paving the way for a shift in the growth model - from trade and investment-driven to domestic demand and consumption-driven.
Goldman's economic team expects the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to rise by about 20% by the end of 2025, "despite the poor start of the market, we maintain our investment recommendation of overweighting A shares and offshore Chinese stocks, given the attractiveness of returns relative to risks."
It further noted that the returns of A shares and Hong Kong stocks would be on a par in the short term, and market sentiment and liquidity conditions may start to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Specifically, the economic team of Goldman recommended tilting the portfolio towards the broader consumer sector, maintaining overweight positions in online retail, media and healthcare, and upgrading consumer services to overweight.
Ubs Securities' China stock strategy analyst Menglei also recently said that although the A-share market has experienced some fluctuations at the beginning of 2025, the improvement of fundamental factors has not changed. The overall corporate earnings of A shares in 2025 will significantly improve, with the earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 Index expected to be about 6%.
Senior market strategist of Alliancebernstein Fund, Huangsenwei, mentioned in the latest research report that the A-share market is expected to perform well under the support of multiple positive factors, including the recovery of corporate earnings, reasonable valuations and sufficient policy tools.
Huangsenwei believes that one is that the domestic economy gradually stabilizes under the policy effect, driving the recovery of listed companies' profits; two is that the current P/E ratio of the A-share market is still at a low level in the major stock markets in the world; three is that China still has ample policy space. There is also room for stimulating consumption, and if relevant policies continue to be implemented, it is expected to provide strong support for economic growth and enhance confidence among stock market investors.
