Goldman's 55% Run: What the Smart Money Is Really Doing

Senator David McCormick executed a textbook profit-taking move last month. On January 23, he disclosed a full sale of his Goldman Sachs position, a massive trade valued between $1 million and $5 million. The transaction, made by his spouse, a former Goldman employee, came after the stock had already surged 55.8% in 2025 and posted strong fourth-quarter results. The timing is telling: shares were trading between $917 and $937 at the time, and they now sit below that level.

This is a classic "sell the news" play. The senator, who serves on the Senate Banking Committee, had previously bought into the stock in February 2025. Now, after a year of spectacular gains, he's cashing out the entire position. The fact that the sale was executed by his wife, who spent 16 years in senior leadership at Goldman, adds a layer of insider familiarity to the move. It suggests the decision was likely driven by a clear profit target being met, not a lack of confidence in the company's fundamentals.

The real signal, however, isn't just the senator's exit. It's whether other insiders and institutions are following suit or staying aligned. A full sale by a member of the Banking Committee is a notable event, but the smart money's next move will reveal if this is a broad-based profit-taking or a tactical pause in a longer-term bullish view. For now, the senator's action is a clear signal that some insiders are taking chips off the table after a massive run.

CEO Skin in the Game: A Different Story

While Senator McCormick took his full position off the table, CEO David Solomon's recent activity tells a different story. In late January, Solomon sold a small portion of his stake, a 0.22% decrease in ownership. The transaction netted him roughly $255,386 from the sale of 272 shares. On the surface, it looks like another insider profit-taking.

But the scale is what matters. After the sale, Solomon still directly owned 125,527 shares, valued at over $117.8 million. That's a massive, continued skin in the game. This isn't a strategic exit; it's a routine, small-scale transaction. The fact that he retained such a colossal stake suggests his personal wealth remains deeply tied to the company's long-term trajectory.

The Real Smart Money Signal: Institutional Flows

The 55% run is built on a rock-solid foundation: Goldman's dominance in the mega-deal market. The bank advised on more than half of the world's largest corporate consolidations in 2025, capturing a command of over 55% of deals exceeding $10 billion. That's the fundamental tailwind. It's the reason for the record advisory fees and the robust return on equity. The stock's surge is a direct payout for that market share.

But the real signal of smart money positioning isn't in a single senator's sale or a CEO's minor trim. It's in the institutional flows. The smart money moves in billions, not millions. To see the true alignment, you need to look at the 13F filings of the major funds that manage the $100 billion+ bank's assets.

The evidence here is a bit of a puzzle. While we can't pull the latest filings live, the pattern is clear. When a bank is capturing over half of the world's biggest deals, the institutional accumulation should be visible. The thesis is that the real signal is in those institutional flows, not individual insider moves. If the smart money is buying, it's because they see the dealmaking tailwind continuing. If they're selling, it's a warning that the cycle may be peaking.

For now, the senator's exit is a single data point-a profit-taking by a member of the Banking Committee. The CEO's retained stake shows personal alignment. But the whale wallet is in the institutional filings. That's where the true bet on Goldman's future is being placed. Watch those 13F reports for the next move.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The smart money's next move will be confirmed or contradicted by a few key catalysts. The first and most important is the next 13F filing season, due in mid-May. That's when the institutional whale wallets will be revealed. Any major shifts in GS holdings by the big funds managing the bank's $100 billion+ assets will be the clearest signal of whether the smart money is staying or bailing. If we see significant accumulation, it will validate the thesis that the dealmaking tailwind is durable. If we see heavy selling, it will suggest the cycle may be peaking.

Second, watch for further insider sales by other executives or board members following the CEO's small transaction. Solomon's sale of 272 shares was routine, but it sets a precedent. If other insiders follow suit, it could signal a broader profit-taking mood. The pattern of insider trading is a powerful alignment indicator. A wave of sales would contradict the CEO's continued skin in the game and raise red flags.

Finally, the stock's reaction to the upcoming Q1 earnings report will show if the 'sell the news' sentiment from Congress is being priced in. The market has already digested the strong fourth-quarter results and the 55% run. The next report will test whether the rally has run its course or if the underlying business momentum can drive another leg higher. A weak reaction or a drop on solid numbers would confirm that the smart money is taking profits.

The thesis hinges on these signals. The senator's exit was a profit-taking by a member of the Banking Committee. The CEO's retained stake shows personal alignment. But the whale wallet is in the institutional filings. That's where the true bet on Goldman's future is being placed. Watch those 13F reports for the next move.