Golden Ocean's Q1 2025: Navigating Contradictions in Market Sentiment, M&A Strategy, and Dividend Policies

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Financial Performance and Earnings Decline:
- Golden Ocean Group reported a net loss of $44.1 million and a loss per share of $0.22 in Q1, a significant drop from a net income of $39 million and earnings per share of $0.20 in Q4.
- The decline was attributed to lower TCE rates, increased drydocking costs, and a net loss on derivatives and other financial income.

TCE Rates and Drydocking Impact:
- TCE rates were about $16,800 per day for Capesizes and $10,400 per day for Panamax vessels, compared to $20,800 fleet-wide in Q4.
- The decrease was primarily due to intensive drydocking, with 380 drydocking days in Q1, leading to 445 days of total off-hire, impacting revenue.

Iron Ore and Bauxite Volumes:
- Iron ore volumes fell due to seasonal factors and disruptions in Australia, while bauxite volumes from Guinea grew by 37% year-on-year.
- The decline in iron ore exports was due to seasonality and disruptions, while the increase in bauxite volumes was supported by high season demand and infrastructure improvements.

Commented Merger and Fleet Renewal:
- After quarter-end, a contemplated share-for-share merger between Golden Ocean and CMB.TECH was announced, with CMB.TECH acquiring close to 50% of Golden Ocean's shares.
- The merger is part of a strategic partnership to support Golden Ocean's fleet renewal strategy, including the sale of older Kamsarmax vessels.