Gold to Surpass $5000/oz in 2026 as ANZ Bank and HSBC Predict Strong Rally

Gold is expected to break $5000 per ounce in 2026, as ANZ Bank and HSBC have both issued bullish forecasts based on evolving geopolitical and monetary conditions. Daniel Hynes, ANZ Bank's senior commodity strategist, stated that geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal uncertainty, and a weakening Federal Reserve have created a sustained environment of safe-haven demand. These factors are expected to maintain fund flows into gold and silver throughout the year.

HSBC also raised its gold price forecast, predicting the metal could reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. James Steel, HSBC's analyst, cited geopolitical risks, rising government debt levels, and persistent investment demand as key drivers. The bank adjusted its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4587 per ounce from $4600, while noting the potential for sharp corrections if risks ease or central banks shift policy.

Both institutions emphasize the role of central bank accumulation and ETF inflows in supporting higher bullion prices. China's central bank, for example, has continued to increase its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, reaching 74.15 million troy ounces by December. Meanwhile, gold ETF holdings hit a 3.25-year high, indicating strong institutional demand.

Why the Move Happened

The rise in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical instability and monetary policy uncertainty. Tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S.-China relations have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened due to concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, further supporting gold.

Additionally, rising U.S. and global debt levels are fueling demand for inflation-hedging assets. With real interest rates remaining negative in many major economies, gold's appeal as a non-yielding store of value has increased significantly.

How Markets Reacted

Gold prices surged above $4600 per ounce in early January 2026, reflecting the convergence of these factors. The metal's rally has been supported by strong ETF inflows, central bank buying, and a weakening dollar. Silver also saw record gains, reaching $83.60 per ounce in December 2025.

Investors are closely watching the U.S. labor and inflation data for any signs of shifting monetary policy. A weaker jobs report in late 2025 reinforced expectations of faster and deeper rate cuts in 2026, pushing gold higher. However, any upside surprises in growth or inflation could quickly reverse this trend.

HSBC's James Steel highlighted the volatility in the silver market, noting that tight physical supply and high backwardation in futures markets could prolong elevated prices. Nevertheless, he warned that industrial and jewelry demand may weaken as prices rise.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are monitoring several key factors that could influence gold and silver prices in 2026 and beyond. The most important include the pace of central bank gold purchases, the evolution of geopolitical tensions, and U.S. fiscal policy. ANZ Bank noted that continued geopolitical instability and lack of fiscal discipline would likely maintain pressure on gold.

HSBC expects gold to trade in a wide range of $5050-$3950 in 2026, with an end-year price of $4450. It also raised its forecasts for 2027 and 2028, reflecting the expectation that the bullish trend will persist.

For silver, analysts remain divided due to the metal's amplified volatility. ANZ Bank forecasts $85-90 per ounce for 2026, driven by supply deficits and industrial demand. HSBC predicts a wider range of $88-$58 per ounce, with a decline expected in the second half as supply conditions improve.

Key Factors Driving Bullion Prices

Central bank buying and ETF inflows remain critical for sustaining high gold prices. The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased 220 metric tons of gold in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2. These purchases provide structural support for prices, even amid short-term volatility.

Investor sentiment also plays a major role. Gold ETF inflows hit a 3.5-year high in late 2025, signaling strong institutional interest. Institutional investors, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are viewing gold as a core portfolio asset rather than a speculative bet.

Risks and Outlook for 2026

Despite strong fundamentals, gold and silver markets remain vulnerable to short-term corrections. HSBC warned that rising real interest rates or a decline in geopolitical tensions could trigger pullbacks. A 15-20% correction to $4000-4200 for gold or $58-60 for silver is possible if macroeconomic conditions improve.

However, both ANZ Bank and HSBC believe that these corrections would represent buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. Structural factors such as central bank accumulation and global monetary uncertainty are expected to maintain long-term support for precious metals.