Gold, Silver, and Oil Start Uptrend, Probability of WTI Crude Oil Breaking $100 Before End of March Rises to 82%

WTI crude oil prices rebounded 32% to around $101 in March 2026 due to heightened geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US–Iran war, which continues to threaten oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction market data from Polymarket suggests the highest probability of a ceasefire by June, indicating geopolitical risk premiums may persist, supporting WTI's medium-term uptrend.

The price movement reflects broader market expectations of continued geopolitical risk affecting oil supply and highlights the volatility of energy markets in response to regional conflicts. Analysts suggest that if WTI fails to break above $105.85, a minor pullback toward $92.60–$88.36 is likely.

W&T Offshore, an independent oil and gas company, reported a full-year 2025 net loss of $150.1 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $129.6 million. The company completed the Cox acquisition and reduced its Net Debt to $210.3 million, while declaring a $0.01 per share dividend for Q1 2026.

Why the Move Happened

The ongoing US–Iran war has created significant uncertainty around oil supply, particularly in the critical Strait of Hormuz. As nearly 20% of global oil supply passes through this chokepoint, any disruption could have major implications for global energy markets. These geopolitical risks, combined with OPEC+ production strategies and global supply-demand imbalances, are contributing to sustained price fluctuations.

Prediction market data indicates that the market is pricing in a high probability of a ceasefire by June, which could ease some of the immediate risks to oil supply. However, analysts caution that geopolitical tensions may continue to support oil's broader uptrend in the coming months.

How Markets Responded

The recent uptrend in oil prices has been mirrored by movements in other commodities, including gold and silver, which are also seeing increased demand amid risk-off sentiment. The market environment remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, OPEC+ policy decisions, and global economic data.

W&T Offshore's 2025 results reflect a challenging operating environment for energy companies. The company added oil hedges for 2026 and implemented cost-reduction initiatives to strengthen its balance sheet. These steps are part of W&T's broader strategy to improve operational efficiency and position the company for future growth.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring the potential for WTI crude oil to break above $105.85, a key resistance level. A breakout above this level could push the price toward $116–$119, reinforcing the market's long-term bullish view. If WTI fails to break higher, a minor pullback toward $92.60–$88.36 is likely, according to technical analysis.

The oil price environment continues to influence global inflation expectations and delay interest-rate cuts by central banks. Structural supply risks and geopolitical tensions remain key factors in determining the trajectory of oil prices in the near term. Strategic petroleum reserves can offer temporary relief, but they cannot fully offset large supply losses.

W&T Offshore's strategic focus on production enhancements and cost efficiency is expected to continue into 2026. The company's ability to maintain its dividend and reduce debt while navigating volatile market conditions will be a key area of focus for investors and analysts.