Gold's Seventh Monthly Gain: Flow Data Confirms Safe-Haven Demand Amid Tariff and Geopolitical Risks

Gold's rally is now a record-setting trend. The metal has climbed 58% over seven months, with a 6.5% surge in February alone. This sustained move confirms a powerful shift in market flow toward the safe-haven asset.

The price action is directly tied to two key catalysts. First, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has fueled demand. Second, U.S.-Iran tensions have provided persistent geopolitical support. Analysts explicitly cite these as the twin drivers behind the metal's appeal.

This flow data shows investors are paying a premium for safety. The rally has occurred even as Treasury yields fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. The setup points to continued vulnerability to any escalation in these specific risks.

The Flow Engine: ETF Inflows as the Demand Catalyst

The record price rally is being powered by massive institutional flows. In January, global gold ETFs attracted $19 billion in net inflows, the strongest month on record. This surge pushed assets under management to a new all-time high of $669 billion.

That flow coincided with a sharp price move. The inflows occurred alongside a 14% surge in the gold price for the month, demonstrating a direct link between capital seeking safety and the metal's rising value. The demand streak is now eight months long, with 2025 seeing a record $91.86 billion in total inflows.

The data shows this is a broad-based, structural shift. North America and Asia led the January buying, but all regions recorded inflows. This eight-month consecutive streak confirms investors are systematically rotating into gold, treating it as a core defensive holding amid persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Catalysts and Risks: Sustaining the Flow

The immediate test for the bullish thesis is February's ETF flows. Sustained inflows would confirm the structural shift is intact, while a reversal would signal a potential demand peak. The flow momentum has been strong, with all regions except Europe seeing net buying even after a price pullback in late January.

The key demand catalysts remain in play. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, like the U.S.-Iran talks, and a weaker U.S. dollar continue to fuel safe-haven demand. Analysts point to these as the twin drivers behind the metal's appeal, with the recent price action showing a direct link to this uncertainty.

The primary risk is a sustained rise in real yields. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which could pressure the flow-driven rally. While yields have fallen recently, any shift in monetary policy expectations could quickly change the calculus for investors.