Gold's Steady State: Fed Rate Path and Ukraine Risks in Focus

As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate the delicate balance of managing inflation and economic growth, gold investors find themselves in a holding pattern. The recent interest rate hikes by the Fed have had a limited impact on gold prices, which have remained relatively stable amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly those stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In this article, we will explore the factors contributing to gold's steady performance and consider its role as a safe haven asset in an uncertain world.

Gold prices have held steady around $2,050 an ounce, despite the Fed's recent interest rate hikes. This stability can be attributed to several factors, including the Fed's communication on the rate path, which has been more predictable than in the past. Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly those stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have also played a role in gold's performance. Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset, and investors may be looking to it as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold miners' stock performance has been lackluster recently, with Newmont down 24% and Barrick Gold down 6.5% year-over-year. However, their ability to generate free cash flow has been robust, with Newmont generating $1.7 billion in 2021. Despite recent underperformance, gold miners' cash flow could support their stocks, contributing to gold's overall stability.

Central bank gold purchases, particularly from countries like China, have also contributed to gold's recent stability. According to the World Gold Council, China's central bank bought 225 tonnes of gold in 2023, the largest buyer globally. This trend, coupled with the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, has supported gold's resilience in the face of geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.



Gold's behavior as a safe haven asset is erratic and not always stable. While it has a positive relationship with US equity market volatility and the US dollar, its safe haven appeal can shift based on market conditions. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, gold prices have rallied by 10%, reflecting inflation fears and concerns about currency debasement. However, market panic could send prices lower, leading to volatile gold prices in the near future.

Our new forecasts for end 2022 and 2023 are USD 2,000 per ounce, reflecting volatile gold prices. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve and the potential for ongoing conflicts persists, gold's behavior as a safe haven asset may shift. Investors should monitor gold's performance closely and be prepared to adapt their strategies accordingly.



In summary, gold's steady performance in early 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors, with the Fed's rate path and geopolitical risks in Ukraine being key influences. Central banks and private investors have increased their demand for gold, seeking refuge in the safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and inflation fears. However, gold's behavior as a safe haven is erratic, and market panic could send prices lower. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, investors should stay informed and adapt their strategies to capitalize on opportunities in the gold market.