Gold Rises as Safe-Haven Buying Continues With Trump Keeping Markets on Edge

The year 2025 has seen a resurgence of geopolitical and economic volatility, driven by the aggressive policy agenda of President Donald Trump. Amid a landscape of trade wars, bureaucratic overhauls, and heightened security measures, investors are once again turning to gold as a refuge. The yellow metal has climbed to its highest level in years, with the price of gold surging to $2,200 an ounce this quarter—a 15% increase since January—as uncertainty looms over global markets.

Trade Wars and Tariffs: A Recipe for Market Anxiety
At the heart of this shift is Trump’s Presidential Transition Project 2025, which has implemented a series of far-reaching executive orders targeting trade, foreign investment, and domestic industries. Key among these is the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on imports from China and Venezuela, including critical sectors like copper, timber, and synthetic opioids. By March 2025, tariffs on Chinese goods had risen by 20%, while Venezuela’s oil exports faced a 30% levy.

This aggressive stance has rattled global supply chains, with commodities like copper—a key input for manufacturing—spiking 25% in 2025. Meanwhile, investors have grown wary of prolonged trade conflicts, pushing capital into gold. A stark illustration comes from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which has seen $12 billion in net inflows year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by 18 percentage points.

Bureaucratic Overhaul and Regulatory Uncertainty
Trump’s push to dismantle perceived “inefficient” federal agencies has further fueled instability. The dissolution of entities like the U.S. Agency for Global Media and the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service—alongside the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—has left industries like media and labor relations in limbo.

The DOGE’s mandate to audit federal contracts and spending has led to abrupt cuts in projects tied to foreign partners or educational institutions, creating unpredictability for sectors reliant on government funding. This uncertainty has spilled into equity markets, with the VIX Volatility Index soaring to a 2025 high of 35—its highest since 2020—during the announcement of these reforms.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Safe-Haven Premium
Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelan terrorist groups and his crackdown on foreign law firms perceived as “partisan” have also amplified geopolitical risks. The move to declare English as the sole official language, paired with stringent voter eligibility requirements, has deepened domestic polarization.

These policies have stoked fears of broader instability, pushing investors toward gold. Historically, gold demand surges when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakens—a trend seen again in 2025 as the DXY fell 8% amid policy-driven uncertainty.

Conclusion: Gold’s Ascendancy and the Road Ahead
The interplay of trade wars, regulatory upheaval, and geopolitical risks has cemented gold’s role as the ultimate safe haven. With the World Gold Council reporting a 40% year-on-year increase in central bank purchases of gold in Q2 2025, institutional buyers are also betting on prolonged market instability.

Looking ahead, gold’s trajectory hinges on whether Trump’s policies stabilize or escalate tensions. If trade disputes with China and Venezuela deepen, or if the DOGE’s reforms disrupt key industries, gold could breach $2,300 by year-end. Conversely, a cooling of rhetoric or a resolution to the tariffs could see a pullback.

For now, the data is clear: in an era of Trump’s aggressive 2025 agenda, gold remains the investor’s most reliable refuge.