Gold’s Relentless Rally: Why This ETF Boom Might Only Be Beginning

Gold Steals the Spotlight in 2025

Few assets have captured investors’ imagination this year quite like gold. As we close in on the end of the third quarter, the metal has climbed nearly 40% year-to-date, outperforming almost every other major asset class and forcing Wall Street to rewrite its forecasts.

For context, the S&P 500 has gained about 12%, while Bitcoin is up roughly 23%. But gold’s advance dwarfs them both in scale and steadiness — a reminder that the world’s oldest safe haven can still surprise in modern markets.

ETF data tells the same story. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has pulled in almost $11 billion this year, while the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) added another $6.5 billion. Together with other physical gold funds like iShares Gold Trust (IAU), the group has absorbed around $28 billion in net new assets — a massive jump from less than $3 billion of inflows in 2024.

A Perfect Storm for the Metal

From trade tensions and political instability to fears about global growth and inflation, the macro backdrop has played directly into gold’s strengths as a hedge and store of value.

“Gold’s structural bull case remains intact,” says Natasha Kaneva, J.P. Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy. Her team has lifted its price target to an average of $4,068/oz for 2026, with potential peaks near $4,250 late next year.

Goldman Sachs has gone even further, suggesting that $5,000/oz could be in play if an upcoming Fed rate-cut cycle drives capital away from Treasuries and into precious metals.

With those projections and sentiment aligned, the rally may still have fuel left in the tank.

Beyond Bullion: New ETF Plays on Gold

While traditional bullion-backed ETFs remain the backbone of gold investing, new strategies are emerging to enhance returns or generate income from the metal’s momentum.

Take the Simplify Gold Strategy Plus Income ETF (YGLD) — it’s up about 60% this year by overlaying options on its gold exposure to capture yield. The newly launched NEOS Gold High Income ETF (IAUI), debuting in June, has already gained over 9% this quarter and offers a 12.5% distribution rate.

These “yield-on-gold” ETFs are giving investors a fresh way to participate in the rally without abandoning income generation — a rare combination for an asset that typically pays nothing.

Gold Miners: The Overlooked Winners

The real fireworks, however, are coming from gold mining ETFs. With spot prices at record highs and company balance sheets in strong shape, miners have surged far beyond bullion.

- Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX): +101% YTD

- Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM): +98% YTD

- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): +95% YTD

- MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (GDXU): +400% YTD

Despite those enormous gains, miner ETFs have struggled to attract new money — likely a mix of profit-taking and investor caution about equity volatility. But as outflows slow and gold prices keep climbing, that hesitation may soon fade.

Is It Too Late to Join the Rally?

The question many are asking now: has gold already peaked?

Not necessarily. The same catalysts that powered the metal this far — monetary uncertainty, inflation persistence, and geopolitical friction — are still very much alive. With the Federal Reserve hinting at rate cuts, liquidity conditions could soon turn even more favorable for precious metals.

Analysts now expect gold to rise another 7–10% from current levels by mid-2026. Whether this proves to be a late-stage melt-up or the start of a longer structural bull run, one thing is clear: investors aren’t done with gold yet.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold and gold-related ETFs involve market and volatility risks. Always consider your financial situation and consult a professional advisor before investing.