Gold Prices Drop 2% as Iran-Israel Conflict Eases

The Iran and Israel war has ceased following the intervention of the USA, leading to a decline in the prices of safe haven assets such as gold and silver. This shift has altered the bias in gold to a sell position, although a retracement to major key levels is expected this week, providing traders with opportunities to enter further sell positions. The key pivot levels for gold buying and selling from June 30th to July 4th, 2025, are outlined in this weekly forecast.

Several significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, which are expected to impact XAUUSD. On July 1st, Fed Chair Powell's speech could increase volatility, with hawkish comments potentially hurting gold and dovish comments weakening the USD and boosting gold. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, despite being marginally better than expected, still indicates contraction, providing minor support for gold. Stronger-than-expected JOLTS job postings may constrain gold's upside due to labor market resiliency.

On July 2nd, a strong beat in ADP jobs statistics (105K vs. 37K) indicates labor market strength, which could renew rate hike expectations, strengthen the USD, and put pressure on gold. On July 3rd, weaker NFP (120K vs. 139K) and slower wage growth (0.3% vs. 0.4%) favor gold, indicating cooling labor and inflation. A higher unemployment rate (4.3% vs. 4.2%) further supports this narrative. If the ISM Services PMI also exhibits weakness, gold may have greater upward momentum as concerns about an economic slowdown increase.

Today is the last day of June, and the monthly close may decide where July can take the price of gold. The price has already swept the high of May 2025, and $3122 low is now pending. A red monthly candle close can take gold to $3122; however, a good bullish close can push it again to test $3441.

The best zone to short gold is the $3320-3337 level, due to the POC, breaker block, and the golden fib level on the 3h timeframe. Meanwhile, the closest level in the 30m chart of gold for selling is at $3301-3313. Here we can see how the price has broken its support and now it is acting as resistance. Major buying in gold is now expected from the $3232-$3202 level, which is a 4h order block and FVG in gold.

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. Resistance levels are at $3301-3313 and $3320-3337, while support levels are at $3232-$3202.