Gold’s New Leg Higher: The ETF Playbook for a Still-Young Rally

Gold’s 2025 surge isn’t just a shiny headline—it’s a trend with breadth. Year to date, spot prices are up nearly 40%, outpacing the S&P 500 (~12%) and even bitcoin (~23%). That macro backdrop—rate-cut expectations, a choppy dollar, and persistent geopolitical risk—has pushed investors toward gold as both a hedge and a portfolio diversifier.

Source: Trading Economics

Macro Backdrop: Inflation, Fed Cuts, and Political Risks

Investors are turning to gold not just to hedge inflation but also as a potential safe haven amid policy unknowns. Heightened scrutiny of Federal Reserve independence and economic policy from the Trump administration is adding a unique catalyst to this year’s surge. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool projects a near-certain probability of a rate cut, which historically weakens the dollar and bolsters gold demand. The risk-off narrative is amplified by investors’ search for uncorrelated assets and the view that traditional asset classes are increasingly stretched.

Beyond Bars: Three ETF Ways to Express a View

1) Physical Exposure (core ballast). For straightforward, high-beta-to-gold exposure, funds like GLD, IAU remain the cleanest route. Given 2025’s inflow surge, they’re clearly the “set-and-forget” choice for many allocators seeking a hedge without equity risk or options overlays.

2) Income on Gold (overlay strategies). If the lack of inherent yield is your hang-up, consider income-oriented gold strategies that sell options on top of a gold position. Simplify Gold Strategy Plus Income (YGLD) is up ~60% in 2025. Newcomer NEOS Gold High Income (IAUI), launched in June, is up >9% this quarter with a ~12.5% distribution rate—evidence that you can seek cash flow while keeping gold in the mix. Understand that option premiums can cap upside during sharp breakouts.

3) Miners (higher torque, equity risk). Miners have dramatically outpaced the metal this year: Global X Gold Explorers (GOEX) ~+101% YTD; Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM) ~+98%; VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) YTD). Despite that performance, many miner ETFs are still negative on net flows—suggesting investors are cautious on equity and volatility risk, but that stance may be shifting as outflows ebb. If the cycle extends, miners’ operational leverage to gold could keep them in the leadership seat—just know they cut both ways on selloffs.

Late… or Still Early?

Timing any momentum trade is tricky, and no one knows the next move. But with rate policy uncertain, inflation sticky in places, and geopolitical risk unresolved, the macro case that powered 2025’s run hasn’t disappeared. Consensus projections still see room—roughly high single-digit to low double-digit upside—from here. Positioning can be as simple as a core sleeve in physical gold, an income overlay for yield, and a measured satellite in miners if you want torque.

Bottom line:

Gold’s rally may have more runway; ETF holdings remain below 2020 records, and analysts expect further upside if the Federal Reserve follows through on rate cuts. However, gold miner ETFs remain highly sensitive to gold price swings, company-specific risks, and volatility in emerging markets. Despite these risks, the gold ETF trade is firmly in focus for those seeking diversification, inflation defense, or pure speculative upside in Q4 2025 and beyond.

Quickly compare GLD, YGLD, SGDM and the the other Gold ETFs side by side with our ETF Compare Tool