Gold Fields (GFI) fell 2.19% on the last trading session, extending its losing streak to two days with a cumulative 3.05% decline.
Candlestick Theory Recent candlestick patterns indicate emerging bearish pressure following the August 26 peak at $33.18. The formation of two consecutive bearish candles (August 27-28) confirms resistance near the $33.00 psychological barrier, while key support emerges around $31.77 (August 25 low). A close below $31.50 would activate a double-top reversal pattern.
Moving Average Theory The 50-day SMA ($26.80), 100-day SMA ($24.50), and 200-day SMA ($21.20) maintain bullish sequencing. Current price ($32.12) trades 20% above the 50-day SMA, confirming the long-term uptrend. However, the proximity to the 50-day SMA suggests a critical support test may occur upon further retracement, creating a potential consolidation zone around $26.50-$27.00.
MACD & KDJ Indicators The MACD histogram has turned negative with a bearish crossover, signaling deteriorating momentum following the August 26 peak. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line crossing below %D from overbought territory (85 reading on August 25), amplifying near-term bearish divergence. This confluence suggests additional consolidation is probable before bullish resumption.
Bollinger Bands Volatility expanded during the August rally, with price piercing the upper band multiple times. Current retracement places the stock between the middle ($30.50) and lower ($28.00) bands. Band compression from 15% to 12% width this week indicates decreasing volatility, potentially preceding a directional breakout. The middle band at $30.50 aligns with the August 22 swing high, creating a key support confluence.
Volume-Price Relationship The recent pullback occurred on diminishing volume (2.81M shares vs. 3.19M prior day), suggesting weak conviction in the downturn. Notable accumulation occurred during the August 5-6 advance (5.99M and 4.20M shares respectively) near $30.00, establishing this as a volume-based support. Breakouts with volume expansion consistently validated upside moves, while current volume contraction may limit downside momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The 14-day RSI reading of 63.28 has retreated from overbought territory (peaking at 78 on August 26) but remains in neutral territory. The gradual descent from overbought levels without reaching oversold conditions suggests moderate bearish momentum. Traders should note the RSI's prior ability to hold above 40 during pullbacks in June and July, indicating underlying strength.
Fibonacci Retracement Applying Fibonacci levels to the April 7-August 26 rally (swing low: $19.41, high: $33.18) yields key retracement zones at $27.92 (38.2%), $26.30 (50%), and $24.67 (61.8%). These levels align with historical congestion areas observed in June and July. The $27.92 zone coincides with the 100-day SMA and represents a high-probability reversal area should the pullback extend.
Confluence and Divergence Observations Multiple indicators converge at $30.50 (Bollinger middle band, August high, volume shelf), creating a critical short-term support. Notable bearish divergence exists between price (higher highs in August) and MACD (lower highs), indicating fading momentum. The simultaneous KDJ bearish crossover and RSI retreat from overbought territory reinforce near-term caution. However, the robust alignment of moving averages underscores the intact primary uptrend, suggesting this retracement may represent a bull-market consolidation phase rather than a reversal.
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