Gold ETFs Reverse 4-Year Outflow Trend Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded robust inflows of $3.2 billion in July 2025, driven primarily by North America and Europe, according to the World Gold Council Gold ETF Holdings & Inflows | World Gold Council^[1]. This follows a first-half performance of $38 billion in inflows, the strongest semi-annual total since 2020. Total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs surged 41% to $383 billion, with holdings increasing by 397 metric tons to 3,616 metric tons. The momentum reflects sustained investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, with North America and Europe accounting for 83% of net inflows during the first quarter of 2025 Gold ETFs Capture a Record $9 Billion of Fresh Capital…^[2].

The inflow trend accelerated in September, with commodities-focused ETFs capturing $10 billion in flows, led by funds holding physical gold such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Global Gold ETF Inflows Hit $44B, Nearing 2020 Record^[3]. This marked the third-largest inflow for the category in the period, contributing to a year-to-date total of $38 billion in gold ETF demand. Morningstar data highlighted that global gold ETFs accounted for 443 metric tons of bullion purchases in 2025, nearing the $49.5 billion inflow record set in 2020 . The surge in demand was attributed to momentum trading, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over global trade dynamics.

Regional breakdowns underscored the global nature of the inflows. In 2025, non-U.S. gold ETFs attracted $19 billion, with China leading at $7.8 billion, followed by the U.K. ($2.9 billion) and Switzerland ($2.5 billion) . The U.S. saw $24 billion in inflows through August 15, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM) collectively capturing $20.5 billion. This outperformed the 2020 benchmark in dollar terms, though the 443 metric tons of gold purchased paled in comparison to the 893 metric tons acquired in 2020, reflecting higher gold prices.

The year-to-date inflows reversed a four-year trend of net outflows from gold ETFs, which saw 549 metric tons sold between 2021 and 2024 . The World Gold Council noted that 2025's inflows could position the year as the second-largest in terms of tonnage, surpassing the 639 metric tons purchased in 2009. Analysts attributed the shift to renewed confidence in gold's role as a store of value amid economic volatility and central bank policies.

Looking ahead, the World Gold Council cautioned that while current inflows suggest sustained demand, the pace of growth will depend on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and inflation. The council highlighted that gold ETFs ended 2024 with a slight decline in holdings (-0.2%) despite record AUM of $271 billion Gold ETF Holdings & Inflows | World Gold Council^[1]. Morningstar analysts emphasized that active ETFs, which accounted for 35% of September inflows, could further gain market share as regulatory changes enable hybrid structures, potentially boosting gold ETF demand Global Gold ETF Inflows Hit $44B, Nearing 2020 Record^[3].