Gold Daily | Spot Gold Rises Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Potential Fed Rate Cut Expectations

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations recently. As of Friday, COMEX gold futures were priced at $3,455.50 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 1.69%, while spot gold closed at $3,397.51 per ounce with a weekly gain of 1.02%. The market was influenced by a mix of geopolitical uncertainty and policy confusion.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices are attempting to sustain their upward momentum following a rebound from the 3,245 USD support level, approaching key resistance at 3,438 USD. Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish trend, with buyers poised to target new highs if prices break past this resistance. Conversely, if prices were to dip below the trendline support, a retracement to the 3,350 USD area might occur. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, indicating continued upward potential. Short-term resistance is noted around 3407 USD, with support levels at 3374.50 USD and further down at 3350 USD.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Market sentiment has been affected by conflicting reports regarding import tariffs on Swiss gold bars. The uncertainty has led to supply chain disruptions, with Swiss refiners temporarily halting US deliveries. The geopolitical climate, including heightened tensions due to trade tariffs, continues to bolster gold's role as a safe haven asset. Additionally, weak US employment data has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further supporting gold prices amid a backdrop of declining real yields. The anticipation of upcoming US CPI data could potentially influence market expectations and gold price movements.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts express caution amid the turbulence induced by potential tariffs and geopolitical factors. Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown highlights the volatility impacting even traditional safe-haven assets like gold. UBS suggests that if tariffs are enacted, disparities between COMEX futures and London spot prices may widen, creating new arbitrage opportunities. Meanwhile, Rhona O'Connell from StoneX notes a substantial COMEX gold inventory, questioning future resilience against policy shocks. Analysts advise close monitoring of Federal Reserve communications and the speed of tariff clarifications to gauge short-term gold market direction.