Gold Daily | Spot Gold Hits Record Highs on Weak US Labor Data and Rate Cut Speculations

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

International gold prices have reached new highs, surpassing the significant $3,600 level due to weak U.S. labor market data, increasing investor bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Spot gold is now at $3,613, having hit a record of $3,616.81. So far this year, gold has risen by 45%, continuing from a 27% increase in 2024.

【Technical Analysis】

Analysts note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates gold is in a severely overbought zone, suggesting potential for a short-term corrective decline. Initial support lies at $3,550, with subsequent levels at $3,511 and further down to $3,437 if the decline continues. However, bullish crossovers between the 21-day and 50-day moving averages suggest that buying on dips could remain active.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Weak U.S. employment data has fueled expectations for a Fed rate cut, with market consensus leaning towards a 25 basis point cut. Additionally, the weaker dollar and ongoing central bank purchases of gold, particularly by the People's Bank of China, have been instrumental in supporting gold prices. The upcoming U.S. CPI report is anticipated to provide further clarity on the Fed's policy direction.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts emphasize that the U.S. employment figures have significantly shifted expectations, with some predicting a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, although this remains a minority view. The prevailing sentiment is that the current favorable conditions for gold will persist, potentially testing the $3,600 level unless an inflation shock occurs. Furthermore, from a technical standpoint, gold's recent breakout is seen as a potential textbook example of a bullish trend, reinforcing its upward trajectory.