Gold Daily | Slight Decrease in Gold Price with Bullish Trend Supported by Falling Rates and Geopolitical Tensions

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

The international gold price has decreased slightly to around $2525, up by 0.5% for the week and 3% for the month. The overall bullish trend is supported by falling interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Traders expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with a high probability of 25 basis points.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bullish outlook. Key resistance levels are at $2529.03, $2541.49, and $2555.86, with support at $2500.16, $2486.23, and $2470.51. The 50-day EMA at $2513.32 and the 200-day EMA at $2485.32 provide additional support.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Market focus is on the upcoming U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year. A lower-than-expected PCE could rekindle rate cut hopes and support gold prices. The U.S. GDP growth at 3% and a decrease in initial jobless claims have reduced the likelihood of significant rate cuts.

【Analyst Opinions】

Peter Fung predicts gold prices could break $2650 by year-end and possibly exceed $2800 or even $3000 in the long term. Tim Waterer suggests that the extent of the potential September rate cut will depend on the core PCE data. Stefan Gleason notes that Western demand for gold is rising, adding to global demand driven by Asian countries and central banks. Everett Millman and Ricardo Evangelista highlight that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties provide strong support for gold.