Gold Daily | Prices Stable at $2500 Amid Awaited US Inflation Data and Potential Fed Rate Cut

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices remain stable around $2500 as investors await key US inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting.

【Technical Analysis】

On the daily chart, gold is trading between the support level at $2480 and the resistance level at $2530, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout. On the 4-hour chart, the range is more evident with traders buying at support and selling at resistance. The 1-hour chart shows a critical level around $2506, which could indicate market sentiment. A break above this level could trigger aggressive buying, while sellers may short near this level.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and strong Chinese trade data are influencing market sentiment. Investors are cautious ahead of US inflation data, which could affect the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 73%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 27%. Strong or positive US economic data may pressure the gold market in the short term. Meanwhile, the US dollar's strength has put downward pressure on gold, although the metal remains supported by the Fed's rate cut cycle and real yield declines.

【Analyst Opinions】

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo suggests that further Fed rate cuts could push gold prices to $2600 per ounce by the end of the year. Exinity Group's Chief Market Analyst Han Tan notes that geopolitical tensions and global economic downside risks will support gold. With major festivals approaching in India and China, physical gold demand may see a seasonal increase. Market analysts like Mike Maharrey and John LaForge highlight that inflation is a key factor driving gold prices, and the metal is poised for a strong performance in 2024. Laurent Maurel from Recherche Bay sees gold as the ultimate defensive asset amid US stagflation. The World Gold Council reports that gold has become the second-largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the euro in central bank reserves. The demand for gold ETFs has also increased, with global holdings rising by 28.5 tons in August, supported by strong inflows from North American and European funds.