Gold Daily | International Gold Prices Surge Amid Expectations of Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts and Weak Job Data

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

International gold prices surged by over $20 to around $2515, with the highest reaching $2517, driven by investor caution ahead of U.S. employment data and expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. Prices recently fluctuated narrowly around $2500.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices are testing key resistance near $2500, with the 50-day EMA at $2497.78 as support. A breakthrough above $2506.59 could push prices to $2515.34 and $2525.45, while a fall below $2498.18 could find support at $2486.66 and risk further decline to $2479.35.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

The U.S. job market showed signs of cooling, with July job openings falling to 7.67 million, the lowest since January 2021, increasing expectations of significant Fed rate cuts. The weakening job market, along with other economic data suggesting a slowdown, has put pressure on the dollar and bond yields, supporting gold prices. The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. ADP employment report and non-farm payroll data, which are critical for Fed rate expectations. With the Fed's Beige Book reporting economic deceleration in most districts and CME’s Fed Watch tool indicating a 45% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, market sentiment remains cautious.

【Analyst Opinions】

KCM Trade's Tim Waterer suggests a weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll could make a 50 basis point rate cut more likely, potentially boosting gold prices to $2600 by the year's end. Analysts from Australia's National Bank attribute recent gold demand to central bank policies, raising their 2024 gold price forecast to $2315. FXEmpire's Arslan Ali and FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta and Valeria Bednarik highlight that holding above $2500 is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum, with potential targets at historical highs of $2532 and beyond.