Gold Daily | Gold Surpasses $4,200 Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations and US-China Trade Tensions

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices historically surpassed the critical level of $4,200, driven by heightened expectations of further Fed rate cuts and renewed US-China trade tensions enhancing demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,210, with a peak at $4,218, and a daily increase of $70.

【Technical Analysis】

On the daily chart, gold continues to reach new highs, with a steep parabolic upward trend suggesting short-term consolidation risk. On the 4-hour chart, a rising trend line defines current bullish momentum, with potential support at $4,089 if prices retract. The 1-hour chart also shows a minor ascending trend line keeping the bullish outlook intact.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

President Trump's recent statement about potentially ending trade relationships with China has spurred safe-haven buying. The market anticipates the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, beneficial for gold, which thrives in low-interest and politically uncertain environments. US government shutdown and trade tensions further accelerate gold's upward movement, supported by global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts highlight the robust demand for gold despite its high prices, driven by escalating government debt and strong central bank purchases. Analyst Dana Samuelson notes that US investors, initially net sellers since March 2024, began serious re-entry into the market as prices surged past $3,700 in September. The trading volume for gold futures and ETFs has significantly increased, indicating strong market confidence. Analysts from Bank of America foresee gold reaching $5,000 by next year, citing fiscal policies and inflation pressures as key drivers.

【Technical Analysis】

Despite being in an overbought territory, gold remains bullish, with potential short-term consolidation risks given high ETF inflows and physical demand. Analysts suggest gold might test resistance levels at $4,200, $4,250, and $4,300, while support is seen at $4,100 and $4,000 if prices retract.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Gold retains its status as a safe-haven asset amid political instability and currency devaluation risks. Despite short-term turbulence, gold’s upward trajectory remains strong, with anticipated future demand buoyed by macroeconomic uncertainties. Global political and economic turmoil enhances gold and cryptocurrency demand as alternative assets, though high volatility differentiates their stability. In summary, gold's recent surge is underscored by geopolitical tensions, anticipated monetary easing, and steadfast investor demand, maintaining its position as a preferred safe-haven asset amidst uncertain global economic conditions.