Gold Daily | Gold Rises with Safe-Haven Demand Amid Tax Cuts and Strong U.S. Job Market Data

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices rose on Friday, showing a potential weekly gain amid fiscal concerns after the U.S. Congress passed Trump's tax cut bill, boosting safe-haven demand. Spot gold increased by 0.5% to $3345, marking a weekly climb of approximately $60.

【Technical Analysis】

Analyst Dhwani Mehta noted that despite Thursday's drop, gold prices are poised for a significant weekly rise. The 14-day RSI is near the mid-line, indicating buyers aren't ready to give up. If gold holds above the 50-day moving average at $3322, it may test the 21-day resistance at $3350. Conversely, if sellers breach the 50-day moving average, prices might target the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3297.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished chances of early rate cuts by the Fed, weakening gold's appeal. The June report showed 147,000 new jobs, surpassing expectations and lowering unemployment to 4.1%. This shifted market expectations from a 66 basis point cut by year-end to 54 basis points. Meanwhile, high gold prices continue to suppress consumer interest in Asia, while India's discount for gold narrowed due to reduced imports.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analyst Edward Meir expressed that the tax cut legislation is unfavorable for the dollar long-term, benefiting gold. The bill will increase the U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over ten years. Meir also noted that Trump's tariff actions could weaken the dollar further, thereby supporting gold prices. David Meger highlighted that robust employment data reduce the likelihood of an early Fed rate cut, strengthening the dollar and exerting pressure on gold. Axel Merk emphasized that in the current strong labor market, it is difficult for the Fed to cut rates.