Gold Daily | Gold Recovers Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation; Technical Signals Suggest Bearish Trends

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices edged higher to $3,321 per ounce, recovering slightly from a three-week low of $3,311.40. The market is watching the Federal Reserve's minutes and the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting for rate cut signals, influencing gold's movement.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices show a bearish crossover with the 21-day SMA below the 50-day SMA. The RSI is at 43.50, indicating continued downward pressure. If the price remains below the 100-day SMA at $3,311, a decline to the July 31 low of $3,274, and possibly lower, is expected. Resistance is seen at $3,346, and if breached, the next targets are $3,375 and $3,400.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

The strong U.S. dollar, driven by hawkish expectations from Powell's Jackson Hole statement, makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Weak employment and inflation data increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-Ukraine relations, have reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. housing data supports the dollar's rise.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts suggest that the Fed might maintain a cautious stance on aggressive rate cuts due to tariff impacts on inflation. The CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 85% probability of a September rate cut. Jim Wyckoff anticipates Powell's dovish tone may benefit gold prices. Christian Borjon Valencia sees gold's challenge to the 100-day SMA at $3,301, with sell pressure needing to break the June low of $3,246 for further decline. A recovery would require surpassing the 20-day and 50-day SMA at $3,347-48, opening up higher targets.