Gold Daily | Gold Near Record Highs Amid Weaker Dollar and Central Bank Buying, ANZ Sets $3,800 Target

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

Gold prices hover near record highs, recently climbing 0.5% to $3,643.78/ounce. The price has surged 38% this year, driven by a weaker dollar, strong central bank buying, dovish monetary policies, and increased global uncertainties. ANZ raised its year-end target to $3,800, expecting further rises into 2024 supported by robust investment demand.

【Technical Analysis】

On the daily chart, gold's momentum has stalled with a "shooting star" pattern, indicating possible pullbacks. A major trendline at $3,400 provides strong support, while a break below $3,120 could open further declines. The 4-hour chart shows a minor uptrend line supporting bullish momentum, with potential new highs if sustained. In contrast, sellers may target $3,400 if this line breaks.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, alongside a weakened U.S. labor market, have supported gold's rise. Recent non-farm payroll data fueled bets on dovish policies, pushing real interest rates lower. Investors await U.S. inflation data for clearer signals on monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut likely, though a higher cut could further boost gold. Geopolitical tensions, such as Poland's recent military alert, also spur safe-haven demand.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts predict continued upward momentum for gold amid dovish Fed policies and geopolitical tensions. The recent non-farm payroll revisions and upcoming U.S. inflation data are pivotal. Despite short-term volatility, the broader trend remains bullish. ANZ forecasts central banks will sustain high gold purchases, which underscores gold's appeal under low-yield conditions. Sprott CEO Ciampaglia remains bullish, citing geopolitical and trade tensions. However, any significant policy improvements might pause the rally.