【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】
International gold prices have declined by 0.2% to $3,308 after reaching a near two-week high earlier. Investors are seeking safe havens due to concerns over the U.S. government's debt burden and fiscal outlook. Driving factors include fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties, with focus on upcoming U.S. PMI data.
【Technical Analysis】
Gold prices have broken out from the consolidation range formed by the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains strong above the central line at around 57.50, indicating potential for further uptrend. If gold prices close above the downtrend line resistance at $3,380, buyers may target $3,400. Conversely, strong support is seen near $3,295, aligning with the 21-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April uptrend. A breach below this support could open the path to $3,232 and potentially $3,193, aligned with the 50-day SMA.
【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】
Investor sentiment is driven by fiscal concerns, exacerbated by the U.S. Congress debating President Trump's tax cut proposal, which could increase national debt by trillions. Weak demand for U.S. 20-year bonds highlights investor caution towards U.S. assets. The market is closely watching U.S. PMI data, which could influence Fed rate expectations. Geopolitical tensions are also heightened by potential military actions by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities.
【Opinions】
ANZ predicts sustained uncertainty will bolster gold demand, noting recent price drops may attract investment activity. CBA anticipates gold prices rising to $3,750 by Q4, driven by geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran. Saxo Bank's
Hansen highlights concerns over U.S. fiscal health as key in current market dynamics, with recent gold gains stemming from a U.S. credit rating downgrade.
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