Gold Daily | Gold Holds Above 50-Day SMA as Investors Eye US Employment Data and Dollar Weakness

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

The latest spot gold price is around $3,334 per ounce, having slightly declined after a substantial rise due to investor caution ahead of upcoming US employment data releases. Key factors influencing prices include the US fiscal policy and employment data.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices have rebounded from recent lows, maintaining their position above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance at $3,320. The relative strength index (RSI) is near the midline, indicating buyers need more confidence to extend the upward trend. A sustained breach above the 21-day SMA at $3,350 could bolster a bullish outlook, aiming towards the Fibonacci retracement level at $3,377 of April's record rally. Conversely, if gold drops below the 50-day SMA at $3,321, it may test the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3,297, with further support at $3,248.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

The tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has pressured the US dollar, supporting gold's bullish tendency. The passage of Trump's significant tax cuts and expenditure plan in the Senate, alongside looming trade negotiations, has driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. The upcoming US ADP employment data is a focus, expected to shed light on labor market conditions. Weak employment figures could increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting gold.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts suggest that gold's bullish trend may be sustained by trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and steady central bank gold purchases. Only a regional war in the Middle East or significant Fed rate cuts could push gold prices beyond April's high of $3,500. BMI maintains its forecast for an average annual gold price of $3,100 by 2025. Meanwhile, AI predictions indicate gold may remain high through the third quarter of 2025, driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with a predicted range between $3,420 and $3,600 per ounce.