Gnosis/Tether Market Overview: Volatility and Oversold Momentum in 24-Hour Cycle

• Price opened at $139.35, dropped to $99.11 before closing at $126.97 on 2025-10-11.
• Volatility spiked during the night, with a sharp pullback from $137.5 to $99.11.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, suggesting potential for near-term recovery.
• Volume surged in early morning ET but declined in late morning, signaling divergent buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a period of high volatility followed by a contraction, hinting at consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on October 11, 2025, Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $139.35, hit a high of $143.50, and a low of $99.11, before closing at $126.97. Total 24-hour volume stood at 14,518.49 units, with notional turnover reaching $2,019,690. The price has exhibited sharp intra-day volatility, especially in the early hours of ET, as buyers and sellers engaged in a tug-of-war over key levels.

Structure and candlestick formations over the 15-minute chart reveal several significant reversal patterns. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $139.41, followed by a long bearish candle at $138.03, signaling strong bearish momentum. A sharp selloff occurred between 19:15 and 21:00 ET, with price plunging to $99.11. This appears to have hit a psychological floor, triggering some stabilizing buying pressure from $105.75 onwards. A bearish divergence is visible at $135.66, where price recovered but volume failed to confirm, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show that GNOUSDT has spent much of the last 24 hours below both, reinforcing bearish bias. However, in the last 4 hours, price has begun to approach the 20-period MA, which currently sits at around $127.00, offering a potential near-term support. The 50-period MA is at $126.40, suggesting a possible consolidation phase may be forming. On a daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs are all bearish, with the price below all three and showing no immediate sign of reversal.

MACD remains bearish, with the histogram shrinking in the last few hours, indicating waning downward momentum. RSI hit a low of 18 during the overnight selloff, currently at 35, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory and could see a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands show a wide range from the overnight sell-off, with price currently sitting near the lower band at $126.97, which may provide a temporary floor. Volatility is expected to contract over the next 24 hours unless new catalysts emerge. Given the current context, a moderate rebound toward the $128–$129 range is plausible, but buyers may face resistance from the 50-period MA at $126.40.

Fibonacci retracements from the major low at $99.11 to the high of $143.50 suggest key levels to watch. The 23.6% retracement is at $124.79, the 38.2% at $127.83, and the 61.8% at $132.68. These levels may offer short-term resistance or support depending on the strength of the recovery. On the 15-minute chart, a key swing low of $105.75 may also offer some near-term buyers, especially as RSI shows signs of stabilizing.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy described involves identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels in conjunction with RSI and MACD divergence to generate long entries in oversold conditions. Using the recent swing low at $99.11 and the high at $143.50, a potential long entry at the 38.2% retracement level (~$127.83) could be considered when RSI remains above 30 and MACD shows a positive divergence. Exit would occur at the next Fibonacci level or when RSI hits overbought territory. A stop-loss could be placed below the 23.6% level at $124.79 to manage risk. Given the current position of RSI and the stabilizing momentum, this strategy may offer a viable short-term trade for the next 24–48 hours.