Gnosis/Tether Market Overview (GNOUSDT) – 2025-10-14

• Price climbed to $139.96 before retreating to $132.57, signaling a volatile 24-hour period.
• Volume surged during key retracements, hinting at potential support testing.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting a possible near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased short-term volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $139.72, indicating strong resistance.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $136.41 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET and reached a high of $140.3 before declining to a low of $130.09 and closing at $132.57 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. Total volume over 24 hours was 3,648.9 units, with notional turnover reaching $493,100 (calculated as volume × price). This represents a sharp correction after an earlier bullish thrust.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a powerful bullish run from $136.14 to $140.3, followed by a sharp reversal and consolidation between $135.74 and $132.04. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $139.72, where buyers were overwhelmed by sellers. A key support level appears to be forming between $132.0 and $131.78, with a doji and a bullish reversal hinting at potential near-term stability. A critical resistance lies at the high of $140.3, where the asset failed to close above despite multiple attempts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA earlier in the day, signaling a temporary bullish bias that reversed. The daily chart shows the 50-day MA at $138.5, the 100-day MA at $139.2, and the 200-day MA at $137.8. Price is currently below all three, suggesting a bearish bias over the medium to long term. A close above the 50-day MA could reinvigorate the bulls.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after a brief bullish crossover, with the histogram narrowing as bearish momentum picked up. RSI dropped to 29 by 10:45 ET, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound from $131.78 to $133.0. However, without a strong volume confirmation, a bounce may not lead to a breakout. Stochastic RSI also showed a bullish divergence at the end of the session, hinting at a possible short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the bullish phase, reaching a width of $4.15 before narrowing during the bearish correction. Price closed near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and a potential oversold rebound. A break above the upper band at $140.3 would be needed to signal a reversal in bearish momentum, but this seems unlikely without confirmation from on-chain or macro factors.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price swings, particularly between 09:00 and 10:45 ET, when the asset dropped from $133.03 to $130.09. Notional turnover followed volume closely, with a large spike at the 09:00 ET candle when price dropped sharply. A divergence between rising volume and falling price suggests increasing bearish conviction. However, the low-volume consolidation between $132.0 and $133.0 indicates a potential balance point.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high of $140.3 and low of $130.09, key levels include 38.2% at $135.22 and 61.8% at $137.96. Price is currently near the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential area for consolidation or a countertrend rally. A break below $131.78 would test the 61.8% level, which may act as a deeper support for the asset.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the effectiveness of resistance levels as trade signals, a backtest can be designed using the Touch-and-reversal definition: a candle reaches the highest close within the past 50 trading days and then closes lower. This definition aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern near $139.72. Using this definition, the backtest would identify key resistance events and assess the market's response, including the probability of a subsequent correction and the magnitude of the move. This approach is particularly relevant for GNOUSDT given its pronounced bearish reversal and the strong resistance at $140.3.