Gnosis/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price rallied from 117.31 to 133.00 before retracting to 119.51 amid volatile swings.
• RSI reached overbought levels, indicating potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Band expansion suggests heightened volatility and possible reversal.
• Volume surged during the 15:15–16:00 ET move to 133.00, then collapsed during the sharp decline.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate a possible short-term support near 121.0.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at 122.94 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 119.51 at the same time on 2025-11-12. The 24-hour high reached 133.00, while the low fell to 117.31. Total volume across 24 hours was 6,157.84 units, with notional turnover amounting to 760,740.00 USD. The price action suggests a volatile and mixed session with sharp swings and momentum shifts.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish reversal pattern after reaching the high of 133.00 on 2025-11-12 at 14:15 ET, with a long upper shadow and bearish confirmation in the following candles. Key resistance levels were identified near 123.2–123.5, while support appeared to form near 121.0–121.5 during the 16:15–17:00 ET pullback. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 15:15 ET high, signaling potential reversal from a bullish phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke above the 20 and 50-period moving averages during the bullish phase, but retested and closed below them by the end of the session. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA was around 120.5, and the 200-period MA at 121.2. Price closed slightly below the 50 MA, suggesting a bearish bias in the medium term. The 50/200 MA crossover was neutral, with no clear directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI peaked above 70 near the 14:15 ET high, indicating overbought conditions. It dropped sharply below 30 during the 15:30–16:30 ET decline, reaching oversold territory. The MACD histogram expanded positively during the bullish phase but turned bearish as momentum reversed. A bearish crossover in the MACD occurred during the 15:45–16:00 ET window, confirming the decline in bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 14:15–15:30 ET period as price surged to 133.00, with volatility increasing. Price closed near the lower band during the 16:15–17:00 ET session, indicating a potential bounce or continuation of the bearish trend. The contraction in the 04:15–06:00 ET timeframe suggested a period of consolidation before the sharp move higher.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 15:15–16:00 ET rally, with a large bar at 15:15 ET confirming the bullish breakout. In contrast, volume collapsed during the sharp decline from 133.00 to 119.51, with the 16:15–16:45 ET session seeing above-average turnover but weak price confirmation. A divergence between rising price and falling volume emerged during the 15:45–16:30 ET window, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 117.31–133.00 move, the 61.8% level sits at ~124.06, which coincided with several resistance levels. The 50% and 38.2% levels (~124.8 and ~126.4) were also tested but failed to hold. The 61.8% level now acts as a potential support, with a breakdown below that indicating a test of the 121.0–121.5 support zone. The 15-minute chart also showed retracements from key 122.0–123.5 swings, with the 61.8% level at ~122.3–122.5 providing short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Oversold → Overbought strategy, which triggers buys at RSI < 30 and sells at RSI > 70, has underperformed on GNOUSDT over the 2022–2025 period. This aligns with the observed price behavior, where RSI frequently entered overbought and oversold extremes without strong trend continuation. The recent 15-minute chart data shows that overbought RSI levels were followed by sharp reversals rather than trend extensions, weakening the viability of the strategy. A more complex approach—incorporating volume confirmation and Fibonacci levels—may yield better results in this volatile environment.