Gnosis/Tether Market Overview

• Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) formed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the 24-hour period, signaling potential reversal.
• Price action shows a key support level at $157.00 with RSI entering oversold territory.
• Volatility remained elevated during the midday session, with volume surging above the average.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, indicating increased uncertainty in the market.
• Notional turnover peaked during the 22:00–00:00 ET window, aligning with the strongest price swings.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at $157.67 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $157.66 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The price reached a high of $159.10 and a low of $152.65 during the period. Total volume was 2,154.07, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $339,415.77 across the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The price of GNOUSDT exhibited a bearish reversal formation early in the session, with a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at the open. This was followed by a pullback to key support at $157.00, where buying pressure emerged multiple times. A large bullish candle at $157.53 to $157.66 around 08:15 ET may indicate short-term stabilization. However, a subsequent breakdown below $157.00 in the late afternoon triggered a sharp correction down to $152.65, with bearish momentum intensifying after the 15:00 ET time frame. A potential short-term support zone appears to be forming between $153.70 and $154.00.

Moving Averages & Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a bearish crossover throughout the period, reinforcing the downward bias. The 50-period moving average hovered around $157.50, while the 20-period line dipped below it, indicating a weakening trend. The daily chart confirmed a bearish alignment with the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages in descending order. The RSI entered oversold territory below 30 in the final hours, hinting at potential short-term buying opportunities. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, confirming a bearish momentum shift that persisted for most of the session.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands displayed moderate expansion during the first half of the day, with price staying near the upper band before drifting toward the lower band after 03:00 ET. The narrowing of the bands during the 08:00–10:00 ET period suggested a potential consolidation phase, which was followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. This movement into the lower band suggests increasing bearish conviction. The bands widened again during the late afternoon and evening, coinciding with the sharp price drop, reinforcing the volatility spike.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally higher on the bearish legs of the move, particularly during the sharp decline from $157.66 to $152.65. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 02:30 ET, with 189.04 units traded amid a $1.32 move. Notional turnover spiked during the same window and again during the 08:15–09:30 ET period. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the late consolidation phase, where the price stabilized despite declining volume, suggesting a potential pause in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key bearish swing from $159.10 to $152.65, the 61.8% retracement level resides near $155.00, which saw a brief test but no strong support. On the 15-minute chart, key retracement levels from smaller swings showed limited buying interest above $157.50. The 38.2% retracement level at $156.30 was briefly tested but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming at or near key support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the pattern's low and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the subsequent bullish swing. Given today's data, the bearish engulfing at the open did not trigger a long entry, but the 08:15 ET bullish candle near $157.53 could serve as a potential test case. A long entry on that candle would align with the strategy’s rules, with a stop-loss below $157.23 and a target at $157.90. The RSI's entry into oversold territory also supports the potential for a short-term bounce, making this a viable candidate for the backtesting framework.