Gnosis/Tether Market Overview - 2025-10-29

• GNOUSDT declined by 3.5% over 24 hours, with price dropping to 132.34 near the end of the period
• High volatility observed between 18:00 and 22:00 ET, with a 4.5% intra-day swing from 138.07 to 133.44
• Volume surged during bearish waves from 138.07 to 133.0, peaking at 134.99 with 34.304 volume
• RSI reached oversold territory (35–40) around 19:30–20:00 ET, suggesting potential for a bounce
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 16:30–17:00 ET, confirming a key reversal signal

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at 137.43 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 132.0 and 138.07 over the 24-hour period, closing at 132.34 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 92.114 units, with turnover concentrated during the 16:30–20:00 ET selloff. The pair exhibited bearish momentum in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price found initial resistance around 138.0–138.07 before being rejected multiple times, forming a bearish wedge. A key bearish engulfing candle at 16:30 ET–17:00 ET confirmed the breakdown from 137.50 to 137.23, signaling a shift in sentiment. Further bearish confirmation followed in the 17:45–19:30 window, with price collapsing to a 24-hour low of 133.00. A strong 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 133.0–133.5 acted as a short-term floor, preventing further decline toward the 132.0 psychological level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages were bearishly aligned from 17:00–20:00 ET, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic resistance during attempted rebounds. RSI fell into oversold territory (35–40) between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, hinting at a potential rebound. However, the MACD remained bearish throughout the period, with the line remaining below the signal line and the histogram widening in the negative zone.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET, with price moving from within the upper Bollinger Band at 138.07 to near the lower band at 133.00. The 20-period BB width increased by nearly 6% during this window, indicating heightened uncertainty and trader activity. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a rebound toward the midline in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key bearish waves from 16:30 to 19:30 ET, with the largest candle at 17:45 ET showing 99.162 volume and 137.4 close. Turnover confirmed bearish sentiment, particularly between 18:00 and 19:15 ET, where large sell orders drove price down. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the final 30 minutes, with volume declining as price hit 132.34, suggesting potential exhaustion of the sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 137.23–138.07 swing revealed a 38.2% level at 137.65 and a 61.8% level at 137.38. The 61.8% level held briefly in the 17:45–18:15 window before price broke below. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a prior bullish move at 132.0–138.07 sat near 134.6–134.8, which was tested but failed to hold during the afternoon selloff. This suggests that the pair may struggle to reclaim that level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on bearish engulfing patterns could have yielded early sell signals during key reversal points, such as the 16:30–17:00 ET candle. However, a successful implementation would require access to historical pattern dates, which are currently unavailable due to data limitations. To refine this strategy, future analysis should include confirmation via RSI divergence and volume spikes, ensuring signals are not false breakouts. This approach could provide a robust entry framework for short-term bearish positions.