GMX/USDC Market Overview: Volatility, Selloff, and Oversold Signals Emerge

• GMX/USDC dropped 8.4% over 24 hours, closing at $10.92 after a sharp sell-off from $12.05.
• Volume surged 8x in the final 4 hours as price hit a 24-hour low of $10.75.
• A bearish breakdown below 11.24 (20-period MA) confirmed a shift in short-term momentum.
• RSI (14) hit 28, suggesting oversold conditions, but price-volume divergence raised caution.
• Key support levels at $10.75, $10.60, and resistance at $11.24 defined the 24-hour range.

GMX/USDC opened at $11.94 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $10.92 the following day, experiencing a sharp selloff that pushed it to a 24-hour low of $10.75. The pair traded between $10.75 and $12.05, with a total volume of 4,162.535 and a notional turnover of ~$45,036,716. The price action suggests a short-term bearish shift, with a breakdown below the 20-period moving average (11.24).

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart includes several bearish signals, such as a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET and a long lower shadow at 05:45 ET, indicating rejection of higher bids. Support levels formed at $10.75 and $10.60, while resistance remains at $11.24 (20 MA) and $11.45 (previous intraday high). A bullish reversal may require confirmation above the 20-period MA, but for now, price appears trapped in a bearish bias.

The RSI (14) dropped to 28, signaling oversold territory, but price failed to rebound above key resistance levels. MACD lines crossed bearishly, with the histogram contracting in volume terms. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, widened significantly during the selloff, particularly after 05:45 ET, when price broke below the lower band. Volume surged in the final 4 hours, with a 333.014 GMX turnover in one 15-minute window at 12:30 ET.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 19:30–02:45 ET rally is at $10.90, while the 38.2% level is at $11.10. A rebound above $11.10 could signal a temporary pause in the selloff, but a failure to hold above $10.90 would confirm bearish continuation. The market may remain range-bound until a breakout attempt forms, with key levels likely to see renewed action in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy involves applying the Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern to GMX/USDC. This pattern typically forms at the end of a downtrend and is considered a reversal signal when a larger bullish candle engulfs the previous bearish candle. Running a backtest to evaluate the performance of a 3-day holding period following each Bullish-Engulfing signal since January 1, 2022, could provide insight into its efficacy on this pair. Given the current context, the formation of a bullish reversal pattern above $11.10 could trigger a short-term rebound, potentially validating the strategy.