GMX/USDC Market Overview: Extended Bearish Momentum Amidst Key Support Testing

• GMX/USDC dropped 5.7% over the past 24 hours, closing at 15.21 after a sharp intraday selloff.
• Volatility spiked after 16:00 ET, with a 30-minute candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern at key support.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, but price continued lower, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Notional turnover increased 3.2x in the final 3 hours, hinting at accumulation ahead of support at ~15.07.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, reflecting rising uncertainty in the market.

GMX/USDC opened at $16.21 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $16.29, and closed at $15.21 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The price recorded a low of $14.99, with total volume at 10,988.46 GMX and notional turnover at ~$168,590 (based on USDC). The 24-hour candle formed a long bearish tail, suggesting strong pressure from sellers.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a sharp breakdown after 16:30 ET, where a 30-minute bearish engulfing candle confirmed a shift in sentiment. The move below the 15.96–16.01 consolidation range opened the door to the next key support at 15.71. A doji formed near 15.69 at 04:00 ET, hinting at indecision. A double-bottom structure is now forming near 15.07–15.08, with the 15.38 level acting as a critical psychological level for potential bounce scenarios.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both 20-EMA and 50-EMA, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-EMA is currently at ~15.33, and the 100-EMA at ~15.52. The 200-day MA (not shown) remains at ~15.95. The price is now more than 500 pips below its 20-period moving average, suggesting a potential for further correction.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit an intraday low of 27.6 at ~05:30 ET, suggesting a potential oversold condition, yet the price continued lower, indicating bearish momentum remains intact. The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the selloff and has since remained negative, reinforcing the bearish bias. Divergence between RSI and price suggests exhaustion may be near, but a bounce should still be treated with caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the Bollinger Bands widening to over 140 pips by 03:00 ET. The price closed at 15.21, ~75 pips below the lower band, which is now at 15.29. This suggests a period of consolidation may follow if the price stabilizes near the lower band. A contraction in the next 24–48 hours could signal a potential reversal setup.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 3 hours of the reporting period, peaking at 344.805 GMX on a 15-minute candle. This coincided with a move from 15.21 to 15.33, suggesting possible accumulation near the lower band. Turnover spiked to ~$5,228 in the same period, a 3.2x increase over the average 30-minute turnover. Price and volume are aligned on the bearish side, offering strong confirmation of downward momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 16.21–14.99 swing show the 61.8% level at ~15.33 and the 50% at ~15.60. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish scenario. On the 15-minute chart, a 38.2% retracement is at ~15.18, currently acting as a potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a long/short pair trade based on divergences between RSI and price action near key Fibonacci levels. Given the current RSI divergence and the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 15.33, a short entry could be considered on a break below 15.07 with a stop at 15.33. A long setup may follow if the price stabilizes and closes above 15.33 with confirmation via a bullish engulfing pattern. This aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the last 24 hours.