GMX/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• GMX/USDC opened at $9.00, surged to a high of $9.18, then declined to a low of $8.72 before closing at $8.82.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 18:45–19:00 ET window, suggesting increased market activity.
• Price formed a bearish reversal pattern from $9.18, with a sharp 15-minute decline to $9.09.
• RSI moved into oversold territory at ~28–32 during late hours, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, with price testing the lower band near key support.

GMX/USDC traded a volatile 24-hour session, opening at $9.00 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closing at $8.82 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $9.18 and a low of $8.72, with total volume of 2,113.555 units and notional turnover of $19,482.45. The session saw sharp intraday swings, particularly between 18:45 and 19:00 ET when the pair spiked from $9.09 to $9.17 on heavy volume.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed several bearish reversal patterns during the day, including a bearish engulfing candle at the high of $9.18 and a shooting star near $9.06. A key support level appears to be forming around $8.85–8.90, with price bouncing multiple times from this range. A large doji formed at $8.99, signaling indecision and potential for a reversal. A bearish breakdown from the $9.10–9.12 resistance was confirmed with a close below that level on elevated volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price fell below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the latter half of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period line hovered around $9.00–9.05, acting as a dynamic resistance during the early hours. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are expected to show a bearish bias, with the 200-day line likely above the current price level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line during the late hours, signaling a bearish shift. RSI dropped into the oversold zone between 28–32, especially in the 3–6 AM ET timeframe, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, this bounce failed to confirm a bullish reversal, as price remained below key support levels. Momentum remains bearish, with the RSI failing to break above 40 in the final hours of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, particularly between 18:45 and 20:15 ET. Price tested the lower Bollinger Band multiple times in the late hours, with a notable touch at the 22:45–23:00 ET candles. The midline of the Bollinger Bands hovered around $9.02–9.05 during the early hours, acting as a psychological pivot that later became a resistance level. The 8:00–9:00 AM ET candles marked a moderate retraction toward the midband, indicating possible exhaustion of the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 18:45 ET with a 417.002 unit candle, followed by moderate activity through the rest of the session. The largest notional turnover occurred between 18:45–19:00 ET, with the $9.17 high driven by strong sell pressure. Divergence between price and volume was noted during the 02:00–05:30 ET period, as volume waned while price continued to decline. This suggests weakening conviction in the bearish move, potentially setting up for a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from $9.18 to $8.92, the 61.8% retracement level aligns with $9.04, which coincided with a strong rejection at the 19:00–19:15 ET candle. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent high–low range appears to align with the $8.85–8.90 support zone. Price found multiple bounces from this level, suggesting it could hold as a near-term floor for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further refine a potential trading strategy, a backtest using RSI-based signals could be applied. A typical approach uses the RSI oversold threshold (e.g., 30) as a potential buy signal, followed by a 5-day holding period. However, given the current bearish momentum and the recent sharp correction, the RSI dip into 28–32 may not provide a strong enough signal for a reliable long entry. Instead, a short bias or a wait-and-see approach may be more appropriate until price confirms a stronger bullish setup or consolidates above key resistance.