GMX/USDC Market Overview

• GMX/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of $15.00 to $15.42, ending near the low.
• A sharp mid-day rally to $15.40 was met with heavy selling pressure.
• Volatility increased in the early hours, with volume surging during the $15.40 peak.
• RSI showed overbought conditions during the rally but failed to confirm strength.
• Bollinger Bands contracted after the sell-off, signaling potential range-bound action.

Over the past 24 hours, GMX/USDC opened at $15.01 on 2025-09-16 at 16:00 ET and traded to a high of $15.42 before closing at $15.08 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. Total volume was 1,834.18, with a notional turnover of $27,715.88, reflecting uneven participation and late-day volatility.

Structure & Formations

The price of GMX/USDC formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the peak of $15.40, signaling a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A large bearish candle followed this pattern, closing near the session low of $15.08. Support appears to have formed at $15.10–$15.14, with a key resistance zone around $15.30–$15.35. A doji formed near $15.25 during the morning hours, suggesting indecision and potential for a pullback or continuation depending on volume action.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly after the $15.40 peak, confirming the reversal. The 50-period line crossed below the 100-period and 200-period lines on the daily chart, indicating a bearish bias over the longer term. Prices closed below the 50-period MA at the end of the session, reinforcing short-term weakness.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative following the $15.40 high, with a bearish crossover forming and a weak histogram suggesting fading momentum. RSI peaked above 70 during the rally, entering overbought territory, but failed to sustain above 65, indicating weak conviction. A subsequent drop below 50 confirmed the bearish shift, with RSI currently at 47, suggesting a possible stabilization in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the mid-day rally to $15.40 and then contracted sharply after the sell-off, indicating a period of high volatility followed by consolidation. The final 15-minute candle closed just above the lower band at $15.08, suggesting a potential bounce or test of the $15.10 support level. This contraction may precede a breakout or a continuation of range-bound action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the $15.40 peak, with a 15-minute candle printing 183.526 in volume, but then sharply declined during the sell-off, signaling a lack of follow-through buying. Notional turnover confirmed this divergence, with the largest turnover occurring during the peak and tapering off in the final hours. The low volume during the consolidation phase suggests limited conviction, raising the possibility of a continuation pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the $15.00 to $15.42 swing show the 61.8% level at $15.25 and the 38.2% level at $15.19. The price bounced off the 38.2% level during the afternoon before declining further. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior major swing sits around $15.20–$15.25, coinciding with recent support levels. A retest of these levels in the next 24 hours is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on using a combination of RSI overbought/oversold levels and Bollinger Band breakouts as entry signals, with stop-loss and take-profit levels derived from Fibonacci retracements. Given the recent overbought RSI peak and the Bollinger Band contraction, the strategy could be applied to short-side entries near $15.08–$15.12. A confirmed break below the 38.2% level at $15.19 would provide a clean entry with a stop near the 50% level. This aligns with the observed bearish momentum and could be tested for a 24–48-hour time horizon.