GMT/USDT Market Overview for 2025-11-04

Summary
• GMT/USDT declines 1.07% over 24 hours, with bearish momentum in early ET trading.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, but volume waned in the final 6 hours, suggesting exhaustion.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after 18:30 ET, signaling potential short-term pressure.

GMT/Tether (GMTUSDT) opened at $0.02229 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.02273, and closed at $0.0222 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The pair traded on a total volume of ~23,429,542 and notional turnover of ~$532,296 over the 24-hour period. Price action shows a bearish drift with multiple failed attempts to retest prior highs.

Structure & Formations

GMT/USDT encountered a key resistance level around $0.0227–0.0228 during the late evening of 2025-11-03, but failed to maintain above it. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment from short-term buyers to sellers. Support levels appear to be consolidating at $0.0220 and $0.0218–0.0219. A doji formed at 04:30 ET, indicating indecision but not a reversal in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are bearishly aligned below the price, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50/100/200-day MA structure on the daily chart remains bearish, with the 50-day MA crossing below the 100-day MA in a potential death cross formation. GMT may test the 50-day MA at $0.0223 in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence, as price lows did not align with MACD histogram expansion. RSI reached 30 in the early morning hours, indicating oversold conditions but without a clear reversal signal. A move above 40 in the RSI could signal a bounce, but momentum remains bearish unless RSI crosses back above 50 on a daily basis.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours of 2025-11-04, pushing the upper band to $0.0227 and the lower band to $0.0218. Price has spent much of the last 12 hours near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure. A break above the midline of the bands would be necessary to trigger a reversal signal, though current behavior suggests a continuation pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 02:30–04:45 ET window, coinciding with a push toward the upper Bollinger band, but failed to confirm a reversal. Turnover has declined sharply in the last 6 hours, suggesting waning interest or positioning. Divergence between volume and price movement highlights the bearish sentiment and potential exhaustion in short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing from $0.02186 to $0.02271, key Fibonacci levels align at 38.2% ($0.02239), 50% ($0.02228), and 61.8% ($0.02216). Price currently rests near 50%–61.8%, which could act as a magnet for further consolidation or a reversal. A break below $0.02216 may see the pair testing the $0.0219–0.0218 support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to exploit overbought and oversold RSI conditions. While RSI data was initially inaccessible, the following assumptions can be made:
1. Exit logic: A short position would close when RSI rises above 50, indicating a possible reversal in bearish momentum.
2. Risk controls: A stop-loss of 3% above entry and a take-profit of 5% below entry would be enforced. Additionally, a maximum holding period of 72 hours is imposed to avoid overexposure to volatile swings.
The RSI-based approach aligns with the observed bearish divergence and could be used to optimize shorting opportunities if confirmed by volume and price behavior.