GMT/Tether (GMTUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-21

• GMT/Tether declined from 0.0426 to 0.0420 amid uneven volume distribution and bearish momentum.
• Key support levels at 0.0418–0.0420 held during late-night consolidation.
• Volatility expanded as prices moved between Bollinger Band extremes overnight.
• MACD signaled bearish crossover and RSI approached oversold territory near 0.0420.
• Heavy volume during sell-offs indicated aggressive bear participation and lack of buying support.

GMT/Tether (GMTUSDT) opened at 0.0426 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0420 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21, recording a 24-hour low of 0.0418 and a high of 0.0432. Total volume was 45,234,603.6, with notional turnover at $1,867,217. The asset displayed a bearish bias across the session, with a strong sell-off during the early morning hours and a final consolidation at the lower end of the range.

Key support levels were identified around 0.0418–0.0420, where the price found a floor during the late-night hours. Resistance appeared at 0.0425–0.0426, with multiple failed attempts to break higher. Notable candlestick patterns included bearish engulfing patterns between 02:45 and 03:30 ET, indicating continued bearish control. A doji formed around 04:00 ET, suggesting indecision in a volatile phase.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages were not immediately available for calculation, but the short-term trend was clearly downward. MACD crossed below the signal line with negative divergence, and RSI reached oversold territory near 0.0420, hinting at potential for a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the sell-off, with price hitting the lower band at the session close, suggesting a period of high volatility.

Volume and turnover spiked during the early morning sell-off, particularly between 03:00 and 06:00 ET, when the price fell from 0.0426 to 0.0420. This was followed by a relative calm as prices stabilized. Notional turnover was proportionate with volume, indicating consistent selling pressure without significant order block formations. Price and turnover divergences were not evident, but the high volume during the drop confirmed bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart showed 61.8% retracement levels around 0.0420, which held as a critical support during the night. Daily Fibonacci levels were less defined due to limited data, but short-term bearish continuation from key support levels was reinforced by price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves a bearish breakout signal on the 15-minute chart using a combination of RSI and volume confirmation. A sell signal is triggered when RSI drops below 30 (oversold) and is followed by a close below the 20-period moving average with increasing volume. A stop-loss is placed at the nearest support level, and the target is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% or 61.8%) depending on the move. The strategy was tested across the 24-hour period and showed a high success rate during the late-night consolidation phase when RSI confirmed oversold conditions and volume surged. This aligns with the observed behavior between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, suggesting the strategy could be robust in similar market conditions.