GMT Market Overview: Bearish Momentum Intensifies with Oversold RSI and Bounce Attempt

• GMT/Tether opened at $0.0402 and closed at $0.0391, declining 2.7%.
• A sharp selloff in the late NY session drove volume to $93.5M, with price testing prior support levels.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below Bollinger Bands, signaling bearish momentum.
• A key Fibonacci level at $0.0393 appears to hold as short-term support amid declining sentiment.

GMT/Tether (GMTUSDT) opened at $0.0402 on 2025-10-04 and closed at $0.0391 after 24 hours of trading, with a low of $0.0390 and a high of $0.0413. Total volume during the period was approximately 63.8 million contracts, translating to a notional turnover of roughly $93.5 million. The pair has shown increasing bearish pressure, particularly in the latter half of the NY session.

On the 15-minute chart, GMTUSDT formed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks, signaling strong selling pressure. A sharp drop occurred around 23:30 ET on 2025-10-03, where price fell from $0.0413 to $0.0398 within a single candle. Notable support levels emerged around $0.0393, where the price consolidated briefly before breaking through to new lows. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier bullish swing sits at $0.0393, aligning with the current short-term support level.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, with the 50-period line sitting below the 20-period line, confirming a downtrend. The 50-period MA is currently at ~$0.0404, while the 20-period MA is at ~$0.0406. On a daily basis, the 200-period MA remains a critical long-term resistance at $0.0427. The 50-period MA on daily data is at $0.0415, reinforcing the bearish alignment in both short- and long-term timeframes.

RSI on the 15-minute chart has dropped to the 30 level, entering oversold territory, suggesting the pair may find short-term buying interest. MACD is negative with bearish crossover, indicating that selling pressure may continue. Bollinger Bands show a significant expansion in volatility, with the price currently trading near the lower band at $0.0390–$0.0400. This suggests the move to new lows may have more room to run, unless a strong bullish reversal develops.

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Looking ahead, GMTUSDT may test the $0.0390 psychological level before encountering potential short-covering near $0.0393. While RSI suggests a potential short-term bounce, the broader bearish trend remains intact. A break below $0.0390 could trigger further selling, especially if volume spikes again. Investors should remain cautious, as divergence between price and volume has not emerged yet, implying that the downtrend may continue without immediate reversal signs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI confirms oversold conditions with a retest near the lower Bollinger Band. A stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high (e.g., $0.0410) to limit downside risk, while a take-profit target aligns with the next Fibonacci level at $0.0389. This setup would be most effective in a low-volatility environment following a consolidation phase, which is not the case currently—highlighting the need for further confirmation before entering trades.

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