GM Beats Q1 Expectations, But Markets Await Trump’s Tariff Announcement Tonight

General Motors delivered solid first-quarter results on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines. But despite the beat, shares hovered in a tight range around $45–$47, with investors holding their breath for a pivotal update: clarity on the Trump administration’s evolving auto tariff policy. With a scheduled speech from President Trump in Detroit Tuesday evening expected to bring key revisions, GM opted to delay its post-earnings conference call until Thursday to digest the news and speak more definitively on how tariffs might reshape its financial outlook.

GM reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.78 versus consensus expectations of $2.68, on revenue of $44.02 billion that also came in ahead of estimates. Adjusted EBIT totaled $3.49 billion, modestly down from $3.87 billion a year ago but still well above the Street’s forecast. CFO Paul Jacobson acknowledged the results were likely boosted by pull-forward demand from dealers racing to stock inventory ahead of tariff deadlines—an acknowledgment of how policy uncertainty is distorting business behavior even before enforcement takes hold.

The company’s previous 2025 guidance, issued in January, called for adjusted EBIT of $13.7–$15.7 billion and EPS of $11–$12. However, Jacobson explicitly warned that those figures should no longer be relied upon. GM has not formally suspended the guidance, but said it will re-evaluate its assumptions once there is more regulatory clarity. “We believe the future impacts of tariffs could be significant,” Jacobson said. “We’re reassessing our guidance and look forward to sharing more when we have greater clarity.”

Trump’s tariff strategy, including 25% levies on imported vehicles (effective April 3) and an identical rate on imported auto parts (effective May 3), has cast a shadow over the entire automotive sector. Analysts estimate these measures could add anywhere from $10 billion to $40 billion to GM’s cost base, depending on whether tariffs are stacked. The sheer size of GM’s global supply chain—about 45% of U.S. vehicle sales are imported—magnifies the exposure. Investors, and GM, are waiting to see whether the administration offers meaningful relief.

Relief might be on the horizon. According to a Wall Street Journal report, President Trump is expected to soften the impact of the tariffs during a 6:00 p.m. ET speech in Detroit. The White House is reportedly planning to eliminate "stacking of tariffs"—meaning automakers would not face multiple overlapping duties on steel, aluminum, fentanyl-related sanctions, and reciprocal trade tariffs. In addition, the 25% parts tariff could be mitigated via a credit worth 3.75% of a U.S.-built car’s value in the first year, stepping down to 2.5% in year two before phasing out entirely.

The news would be unequivocally positive for GM, though still short of a full reprieve. Jacobson acknowledged the possibility of offsetting 30–50% of the tariffs through operational and supply chain adjustments, but emphasized the company won’t make major capital allocation decisions until the tariff landscape stabilizes. Notably, GM has suspended all new share repurchases for now, even though it is still in the process of completing a $2 billion accelerated buyback from earlier this year.

GM is already making "no regrets" tweaks to its operations, such as increasing pickup truck production in Fort Wayne, Indiana, canceling planned downtime in Missouri, and pausing EV van production in Canada. These changes are strategic hedges, not wholesale shifts—yet. Larger capital projects and manufacturing decisions remain on hold until the company has more certainty.

For now, GM’s fundamentals remain strong, with U.S. deliveries up more than 20% year-over-year in April, helped by pre-tariff stockpiling. But longer-term profitability, capex planning, and free cash flow are all clouded by policy uncertainty. Until the scope of Trump’s revised tariff order becomes clear, investors will likely treat GM’s stock with a cautious eye.

The company’s earnings call, now scheduled for Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to be the first real test of how GM plans to absorb, pass through, or offset the coming cost burdens. Investors hope Thursday’s call will offer the clarity Wall Street has been lacking—and with GM’s shares moving in a tight band, they’re poised to react sharply once they get it.