GLP-1 Therapeutics Market Dynamics: Assessing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly Amid Pfizer's Strategic Entry

The GLP-1 therapeutics market has emerged as one of the most transformative sectors in modern healthcare, driven by the explosive demand for obesity and diabetes treatments. As of 2025, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have locked horns in a high-stakes battle for dominance, with Pfizer now entering the fray through a strategic acquisition. This analysis evaluates the competitive positioning of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in light of Pfizer's entry, drawing on recent market data and corporate strategies.

Eli Lilly's Surge and Novo Nordisk's Resilience

Eli Lilly has overtaken Novo Nordisk in the U.S. GLP-1 market, capturing 57% of the market share by Q2 2025The GLP-1 Duopoly: Is the Market Overlooking Novo Nordisk's Hidden Value?^[1]. This shift was fueled by the rapid adoption of its dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for chronic weight management). Clinical trials demonstrated Zepbound's ability to achieve 20.2% weight loss, outperforming Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (13.7%) in the SURMOUNT-5 trialThe GLP-1 Duopoly: Is the Market Overlooking Novo Nordisk's Hidden Value?^[1]. Eli Lilly's aggressive pricing strategies, including a $299 self-pay option for Zepbound, and partnerships like preferred formulary status at CVS Caremark, have further solidified its leadWith compounders out of the way, Lilly and Novo go after each other^[2].

Despite losing U.S. market share, Novo Nordisk retains a 63% global GLP-1 volume market share in 2024Business Dynamics: How Novo Nordisk Lost GLP-1 Market Share to Eli Lilly^[3]. Its flagship semaglutide-based products, Ozempic and Wegovy, remain dominant in diabetes management, with Ozempic generating $5 billion in Q1 2025Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk report strong earnings as GLP …^[4]. Novo Nordisk is also leveraging semaglutide's broader therapeutic potential, with regulatory approvals expected for chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in 2025The GLP-1 Duopoly: Is the Market Overlooking Novo Nordisk's Hidden Value?^[1]. These moves position the company to transition from a diabetes-focused player to a “one-stop-shop” for chronic disease management.

Pfizer's Entry: A Game Changer?

Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera for up to $7.3 billion in 2025 marks its most significant foray into the GLP-1 spacePfizer to Acquire Metsera and its Next-Generation Obesity Portfolio^[5]. The deal grants access to Metsera's pipeline, including MET-097i (a weekly/monthly GLP-1 RA in Phase 2) and MET-233i (a monthly amylin analog in Phase 1). Analysts project that Pfizer could capture 15–20% of the obesity drug market within five years, leveraging its global commercial infrastructure and Metsera's long-acting formulationsWhy Pfizer’s 7.3bn Metsera bet puts Novo and Lilly on notice.^[6].

Pfizer's entry introduces a critical wildcard. While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk focus on incremental improvements in GLP-1 agonists, Pfizer's amylin analog (MET-233i) could offer a differentiated mechanism of action, potentially addressing appetite suppression and glucose regulation more effectively. Additionally, Pfizer's scale and expertise in global commercialization may enable rapid market penetration, particularly in regions where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have weaker footprints.

Strategic Implications and Market Projections

The GLP-1 market is projected to grow from $52.08 billion in 2024 to $186.64 billion by 2032GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Market Size, Share | Growth …^[7], driven by obesity prevalence, regulatory approvals, and the development of oral formulations. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are advancing oral GLP-1 options: Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is nearing approval, while Eli Lilly's orforglipron is expected to file for regulatory submission by late 2025GLP-1 Titans Clash: Eli Lilly Challenges Novo Nordisk's Dominance in a Spiraling Market Battle^[8]. These innovations will likely intensify competition, with Pfizer's entry adding further pressure.

For investors, the key differentiators will be:
1. Clinical Efficacy: Eli Lilly's current lead in weight loss outcomes may be challenged by Pfizer's amylin-based therapies.
2. Commercial Execution: Novo Nordisk's global supply chain and Eli Lilly's U.S.-centric partnerships will need to adapt to Pfizer's scale.
3. Pipeline Diversification: Novo Nordisk's expansion into MASH and CKD could provide long-term advantages, while Pfizer's amylin analog may carve a niche.

Conclusion

The GLP-1 therapeutics market is at a pivotal inflection point. Eli Lilly's short-term momentum in the U.S. contrasts with Novo Nordisk's global dominance and long-term pipeline, while Pfizer's entry introduces a new dimension of competition. For investors, the next 18–24 months will be critical in determining which company can balance innovation, commercial agility, and regulatory milestones to secure a lasting edge. As the market evolves, a diversified portfolio approach—hedging across these three players—may offer the most robust strategy amid the sector's rapid growth and volatility.