GLP-1 Oral Therapies and the Future of Weight Management: Market Disruption and Stock Valuation Opportunities

The weight management sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the rapid adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and the emergence of oral formulations. These therapies, once confined to diabetes treatment, are now redefining obesity care-and with them, the pharmaceutical industry's most lucrative growth opportunities. As the global GLP-1 agonists market surges toward a projected $48.84 billion in 2030 (up from $13.84 billion in 2024 at an 18.54% CAGR) according to Grand View Research, investors are scrambling to assess which companies will dominate this transformative space.

The Oral GLP-1 Revolution: A Game Changer

The introduction of oral GLP-1RAs marks a pivotal inflection point. For decades, injectable formulations like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound dominated the market. But patient adherence to injections has been a persistent challenge. Oral alternatives, such as Novo's once-daily Wegovy pill (approved in late 2025) and Lilly's orforglipron (expected to launch in early 2026), promise to expand access and improve compliance according to Biospace.

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, priced at $149 per month, has already secured a first-mover advantage. Clinical trials demonstrated a 16.6% average weight loss compared to 2.7% with placebo, a result that underscores its potential to capture a significant share of the $80 billion obesity GLP-1 market. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly's orforglipron, with a 12.4% weight loss in trials, trails slightly but benefits from Lilly's existing dominance in injectable GLP-1s. Analysts note that Lilly's Zepbound already commands a larger market share than Wegovy's injectable counterpart, suggesting orforglipron could quickly close the gap.

The race isn't limited to these two giants. Structure Therapeutics' aleniglipron achieved a 15.3% weight loss in trials, while Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 showed 10.9% efficacy, albeit with higher discontinuation rates due to side effects. These developments highlight a crowded but dynamic market, where differentiation in efficacy, tolerability, and pricing will determine long-term winners.

Valuation Metrics: Assessing the Leaders

Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 financials reveal a company in high gear. Revenue hit $17.6 billion, a 54% year-over-year jump, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro. Its trailing P/E ratio of 50.18 and forward P/E of 45.5 reflect strong investor confidence, despite a $926 billion market cap that some argue is already priced for perfection according to Lilly's investor report. Novo Nordisk, by contrast, has seen its stock surge on Wegovy pill approval, with analysts projecting the drug could capture 20% of the obesity GLP-1 market by 2030 according to Nasdaq analysis.

For smaller players like Structure Therapeutics, the valuation story is riskier but potentially explosive. With late-stage trials for aleniglipron set to begin in mid-2026, the company's market cap remains a fraction of its peers, offering a high-reward, high-volatility proposition. Viking Therapeutics, meanwhile, faces scrutiny over its drug's side effects, which could limit its commercial potential.

The Bigger Picture: Beyond Obesity

The GLP-1 market's growth isn't confined to weight loss. These drugs are now being tested for Alzheimer's, obstructive sleep apnea, and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). Eli Lilly's retatrutide, a triple-hormone agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, achieved a 28.7% weight loss in trials-a result that could redefine the category and justify premium valuations. Novo Nordisk's amycretin, a next-gen GLP-1RA in phase 3 trials, further underscores the sector's innovation pipeline.

Investment Implications

The key takeaway for investors is clear: the GLP-1 oral therapies market is a high-growth, high-competition arena. Novo Nordisk's first-mover advantage and robust pipeline position it as the current leader, but Eli Lilly's injectable dominance and orforglipron's strong tolerability profile make it a formidable challenger. Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics offer speculative upside but require closer scrutiny of trial data and commercialization risks.

For the broader market, the shift to oral formulations is inevitable. By 2034, over 20% of global obesity drug sales are expected to be oral therapies, a trend that will reshape treatment paradigms and investor returns. Those who act now-while valuations are still anchored to legacy metrics-stand to benefit from a sector poised for decades of disruption.