The GLP-1 Boom: Why OZEM is Poised to Capitalize on the Obesity Drug Revolution

The global obesity drug market is on fire, projected to hit $130 billion by 2030 as companies race to innovate beyond the needle. At the epicenter of this revolution is the Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (OZEM), a concentrated play on the sector’s leaders, including Novo Nordisk (NVO), which holds a staggering 19.8% stake in the fund. With Novo’s $2.2 billion Septerna deal—aimed at developing oral small-molecule therapies—poised to redefine the market, OZEM offers investors a leveraged bet on a transformative shift to oral obesity drugs. Here’s why this ETF is your best bet to capitalize on the boom.

The Shift to Oral Therapies: Why It Matters

The obesity drug market is undergoing a seismic shift. While injectable GLP-1 agonists like Wegovy (Novo) and Mounjaro (Lilly) have dominated sales, the holy grail is an oral formulation that offers convenience and broader patient adoption. Novo’s pending FDA decision on its oral Wegovy by year-end 2025 is a critical catalyst, but the race isn’t just about convenience.

Enter Septerna’s GPCR platform, which Novo is leveraging to develop multi-receptor-targeting small molecules. These therapies aim to bind to GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors with 80-90% sequence similarity, potentially delivering triple-agonist efficacy—superior to Lilly’s Zepbound (a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist). Early trials suggest combinations of Septerna’s GIP agonist with Novo’s semaglutide could rival Zepbound’s weight-loss results. For OZEM investors, this isn’t just a partnership; it’s a strategic bid to reclaim market share from Lilly’s oral dominance.

Why OZEM Wins Where Broader ETFs Lag

While ETFs like the VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) offer diversified exposure to pharma stocks, they lack thematic focus on GLP-1 innovation. PPH’s top holdings—such as Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK)—are not leaders in obesity drugs. In contrast, OZEM’s 19.8% stake in NVO ensures outsized exposure to the Septerna deal’s breakthroughs.

Consider the numbers:
- OZEM’s portfolio is 67.77% concentrated in its top 10 holdings, with Novo and Eli Lilly (LLY) dominating.
- By contrast, PPH allocates just 4.7% to NVO and 2.4% to LLY.

The timing advantage is clear. OZEM launched in May 2024, just as the oral drug race heated up. Its active management allows it to pivot to winners like Novo, while passive ETFs are stuck in lagging stocks.

The Septerna Deal: A $2.2B Catalyst for NVO—and OZEM

The $2.2 billion deal isn’t just about R&D it’s about redefining Novo’s competitive moat. Key milestones in 2025 include:
- Q3 2025: Phase 1 trials for Septerna’s mast cell disease drug (SEP-631), testing the platform’s safety and efficacy.
- Late 2025: Selection of a next-generation oral PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism, advancing toward clinical trials.

The upfront $200 million paid to Septerna and the potential for $2.2 billion in total milestones underscore Novo’s urgency to counter Lilly’s Zepbound. For OZEM investors, this means leverage to Novo’s valuation swings ahead of the FDA’s oral Wegovy decision—a binary event that could boost NVO’s stock by 15-20% if approved.

Risks? Yes. Upside? Massive.

Critics will cite risks: competition from Lilly, regulatory hurdles, and the ETF’s concentration (81.49% in its top 15 holdings). But the $80 billion+ obesity drug market is growing at 20% annually, and Novo’s Septerna bet is a high-conviction move to defend its $10 billion-a-year Wegovy franchise.

The Bottom Line: OZEM is a 2025 Must-Own

The GLP-1 boom isn’t slowing down. With Novo’s oral drug decision and Septerna’s pipeline milestones looming, OZEM’s 19.8% stake in NVO positions it to capture the upside of a sector set to explode. This isn’t just about diversification—it’s about maximizing exposure to the companies rewriting the obesity drug playbook.

For investors seeking asymmetric returns in healthcare, OZEM is the ETF to buy now. The next 12 months will decide which company—Novo or Lilly—owns the future of weight loss. With OZEM, you’re betting on the leader with the most to gain.

Act now—before the market does.