GLOO Beats Revenue, Yet Stock Plunges 36% After the Print

Gloo Holdings reported fiscal 2027 Q2 earnings on September 10, 2026. The company significantly beat revenue expectations with a 188% year-over-year increase, while net losses narrowed substantially compared to the prior year. Management also raised full-year revenue guidance, signaling continued momentum in their strategic growth initiatives.

Revenue

The total revenue of Gloo Holdings increased by 188.0% to $46.57 million in 2027 Q2, up from $16.17 million in 2026 Q2.

Earnings/Net Income

Gloo Holdings narrowed losses to $0.25 per share in 2027 Q2 from a loss of $6.45 per share in 2026 Q2 (96.1% improvement). Meanwhile, the company successfully narrowed its net loss to $-21.16 million in 2027 Q2, reducing losses by 52.0% compared to the $-44.10 million net loss reported in 2026 Q2. Remarkably, in 2027 Q2, the company set a new record high for fiscal Q2 net income, the highest in 2 years. This EPS performance represents a substantial improvement, though it still missed consensus estimates by $0.07.

Price Action

The stock price of Gloo Holdings has dropped 4.91% during the latest trading day, has edged down 1.48% during the most recent full trading week, and has tumbled 13.65% month-to-date.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

I'll backtest a "buy on revenue miss, hold 30 days" strategy for GLOO. First, let me confirm what GLOO is, and pull up your prior event-driven backtest conventions (like the Oracle revenue-miss backtest) so the methodology stays consistent.GLOO is confirmed as Gloo Holdings (Nasdaq: GLOO) — your prior backtest series (PS, STUB, QMLS, BF.B, CASY) uses post-gap entry pricing, 30-day holds, and SPY benchmarking, so I'll keep that exact convention. Now let me load the data-fetch skill and pull GLOO's earnings history (revenue actual vs. estimates) plus daily price history.Now I'll fetch GLOO's earnings history (revenue actual vs estimates) and its full daily price history — two independent queries against the same data backend.Both datasets landed. The earnings table shows only the last few quarters have analyst estimates — let me read the full saved files to get the exact per-quarter revenue actual vs. estimate, and the full price-series coverage.The picture is now clear — and it's decisive: GLOO has zero revenue misses. All four quarters with analyst estimates (QE Oct-2025 through Jul-2026) were revenue beats; the Jul-2025 quarter has an actual but no estimate on record. Before I conclude, let me verify the announcement dates for those four reports and pull SPY closes so I can add the mirror read (what 30-day windows after GLOO's reports actually looked like), consistent with your prior backtests.Revenue-miss classification is already decided (zero misses), but to make the mirror-window analysis rigorous I need the two remaining announcement dates (the Dec-2025 and Mar-2026 reports). Let me search for those and, in parallel, compute the 30-day post-report windows from the price series (with gap-detection as fallback for any date the search can't confirm).Announcement dates are now confirmed: Dec 17, 2025 (FQ3'25), Apr 14, 2026 (FQ4'25), Jun 8, 2026 (FQ1'26), and Sep 9, 2026 after the close (FQ2'26) — and every one of them was a revenue beat against consensus. My earlier window guess-dates need correcting to the confirmed report dates, so I'll recompute all 30-day windows precisely, and load the visualization skill to render GLOO's full listed-life chart with the report dates marked.The event study is complete: 0 revenue misses in the sample, and after all three beats GLOO underperformed SPY over the next 30 days (−0.9%, −4.9%, −36.4% vs +2.2%, +5.6%, +2.0%). Now let me check the standard-chart route spec and then render the event-study chart (GLOO's full listed-life price line with the four report dates and the 30-day windows marked).The standard line route fits the event-study chart. One prep step: I need the exact daily close array plus the four report-date closes to mark the events, which I'll format for the render option.Data prep is complete — 201 daily closes with four report-day markers flagged. Now rendering the event-study chart (isolated render call).Title was too long — shortening and retrying the render.The route doesn't accept null placeholder values in a series — I'll render the single GLOO price line (the report dates are conveyed in the results table), which is the smallest sufficient visual.Everything's verified. Here is the complete backtest result.

Verdict: the strategy has zero qualifying trades — GLOO has never missed a revenue consensus estimate

Backtested exactly as in your prior event-driven series (signal = revenue below consensus; entry = first trading close after the announcement, wait for post-earnings pricing; exit = the last trading close within 30 calendar days; benchmark = SPY over the matching span). Result: 0 completed trades — a win rate and compounded return cannot be computed without fabricating a sample, so the strategy is not implementable on GLOO. This is the second zero-sample outcome in your series (PS was the other), and unlike QMLS (zero misses but only one quarter of coverage), here the miss count is genuinely zero across every quarter that has analyst estimates.

① The screening data — every covered quarter was a revenue beat

| Fiscal quarter | Report date | Consensus revenue ($M) | Actual revenue ($M) | Revenue surprise (%) | EPS: actual vs estimate ($) | Signal |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| FQ3 2025 (QE Oct 31, 2025) | 2025-12-17 | 24.0 | 32.6 | +35.9 | −4.71 vs −5.49 | Beat |

| FQ4 2025 (QE Jan 31, 2026) | 2026-04-14 | 31.6 | 33.6 | +6.5 | −0.78 vs −0.45 | Beat |

| FQ1 2026 (QE Apr 30, 2026) | 2026-06-08 | 36.0 | 41.5 | +15.3 | −0.22 vs −0.21 | Beat |

| FQ2 2026 (QE Jul 31, 2026) | 2026-09-09 (AMC) | 44.1 | 46.6 | +5.8 | −0.25 vs −0.17 | Beat |

Pre-IPO/pre-IPO-coverage quarters (QE Jan 2025 through Jul 2025, actual revenue $16.2M in the Jul 2025 quarter) have no consensus estimates on record and cannot be classified either way . Announcement dates verified from the press releases: Dec 17, 2025 , Apr 14, 2026 , Jun 8, 2026 , and Sep 9, 2026 after the close .

② The mirror test — the inverse trade (buying every beat) lost money in all three completed windows

With no misses to trade, I ran the event study the screen can support: what actually happened to GLOO in the 30 days after each report .

| Event | Entry (close) | Exit (close) | Return (%) | SPY over same span (%) | Alpha (%) |

|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| FQ3'25 beat (+35.9% rev) | 2025-12-18 @ 6.36 | 2026-01-16 @ 6.30 | −0.9 | +2.2 | −3.1 |

| FQ4'25 beat (+6.5% rev) | 2026-04-15 @ 6.30 | 2026-05-15 @ 5.99 | −4.9 | +5.6 | −10.5 |

| FQ1'26 beat (+15.3% rev) | 2026-06-09 @ 4.78 | 2026-07-09 @ 3.04 | −36.4 | +2.0 | −38.4 |

| FQ2'26 beat (+5.8% rev) | 2026-09-10 @ 3.005 | window open, matures ~Oct 9 | −4.6 (day 1) | — | — |

Prices from GLOO's daily history , SPY closes . Even the "just buy any print" variant went 0-for-3: average −13.4% vs SPY's +3.3%, an average gap of roughly −17 points per event. The June event is the striking one — a 15.3% revenue beat plus raised guidance still preceded a −36.4% month that took the stock to its series low of $2.95 on Jul 10.

The backdrop to why: the stock has fallen from ~$9.50 near its late-Nov 2025 listing to $3.005 now, about −63% . Revenue beats are not the binding variable — GAAP losses came in worse than consensus in 3 of 4 quarters (the EPS column above), Adjusted EBITDA is still negative (−$8.3M last quarter, with management targeting profitability in Q4 2026), and the company just extended its senior term loan . The market is pricing the burn and the balance sheet, not the top-line beat, and every print has so far been a "sell-the-good-news" event.

GLOO price since listing, with the four report-day closes ($6.56, $6.16, $5.08, $3.15) falling on the dates marked in the table:

What this means for your event-driven framework

• No expectation gap exists for "buy the miss" on GLOO — there is no miss to buy. And the mirror result warns against flipping the strategy either way: post-beat drift here was persistently negative, the opposite of the classic beat-drift-up anomaly, because IPO-priced growth expectations and GAAP losses dominate the reaction function.

• Consensus read: revenue trajectory and raised FY2026 guide ($200M) — largely priced in; the EBITDA-inflection path to Q4 2026 — partially priced in; dilution/debt-structure overhang — the open variable. Confirmation signals the "sell every print" pattern is breaking: an EPS print closer to break-even, Adjusted EBITDA turning positive as guided, or the stock holding post-print gains into mid-October. Invalidation of the caution: the open FQ2'26 window closing positive on Oct 9 would be the first counter-example.

• Broader lesson across your backtest series (ORCL: no edge; PS: zero trades; now GLOO: zero events): revenue-miss reversion only has a sample in high-coverage names, and even there the ORCL test showed post-gap entry pricing erases the edge. For thin-coverage, unprofitable small caps, a revenue miss is rarely "noise to fade" — it clusters with deteriorating fundamentals.

• Risk note on the open window: at ~$3 with 30-day trading ranges that have spanned 32–57% of price, a full position here is a volatility decision first; the pattern historically argues against adding into the print rather than catching a bounce.

If you want, I can rerun the window automatically when it matures (Oct 9, 2026), or extend the backtest to names where the event actually has a sample.

suggestion

Set a task to rerun the GLOO 30-day window analysis when it matures on October 9

Backtest buy-the-revenue-miss on high-coverage software names with 20+ events instead

Analyze GLOO's dilution and debt structure from the latest quarter

CEO Commentary

CEO Scott Beck, Co-Founder, highlighted Q2’s robust 188% year-over-year revenue growth to $46.6 million, attributing success to applied AI leadership and strategic acquisitions like Cedarstone. He emphasized a shift toward delivering outcomes via agentic workflows rather than just tools, noting strong cross-selling momentum and a pipeline exceeding $1 million annual contract values per customer. Beck expressed optimism about expanding into higher-value relationships, including universities, while maintaining cost discipline to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q4. He affirmed that improved frontier models serve as a tailwind, enabling greater efficiency and margin expansion without proportionate cost increases, positioning Gloo to capitalize on the underserved faith and flourishing ecosystem.

Guidance

Gloo raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $5 million to $200 million, inclusive of the Cedarstone acquisition. For the third quarter, the company expects revenue of $55 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $3.5 million, representing a significant sequential improvement. Management anticipates continued cost discipline to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company also noted that the weighted average share count for Q3 is expected to be approximately 90 million shares, with full-year operating expenses expected to remain approximately flat in absolute dollars despite the significant revenue increase.

Additional News

Gloo Holdings recently announced the acquisition of Cedarstone, a strategic move designed to expand its portfolio of AI-powered services specifically tailored for nonprofit organizations. This deal underscores the company's commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency within the faith and flourishing ecosystem. In related developments, the company extended the term of its senior secured loan by one year to April 2028, providing additional financial flexibility as it pursues growth. These financial maneuvers are critical as Gloo navigates its path toward profitability, balancing aggressive revenue targets with necessary balance sheet management. The acquisition marks a significant step in consolidating its market position and diversifying its service offerings beyond traditional platform tools.