Globalstar: A Contrarian's Satellite Gem with 5G Fuel and Insider Backing

The Satellite Sector's Undervalued Gem
Globalstar (NASDAQ: GSAT) has fallen out of favor with investors this year, plunging 33% year-to-date (YTD) as macroeconomic headwinds and sector volatility spook traders. But beneath the noise lies a company primed for a comeback—a satellite communications pioneer with a $391 million cash buffer, transformative 5G partnerships, and a bold strategic pivot. James Monroe III’s recent $928,000 stock purchase—amid widespread insider sales—signals a contrarian opportunity in a misunderstood stock.

Why the Market Misses the Opportunity

The sell-off ignores three critical pillars of value:

1. Financial Fortitude in a Cash-Scarce World

Globalstar’s balance sheet is a fortress. Despite a 33% YTD stock decline, the company maintains a $391 million cash buffer (Q4 2024) and a 2.27 current ratio, meaning it can cover short-term liabilities twice over. Even after $190 million in Q1 capital expenditures (CAPEX) for satellite upgrades and network infrastructure, liquidity remains robust at $241 million. This cash hoard isn’t just a safety net—it’s fuel for growth.

The company’s Q4 2024 revenue surged 17% YoY to $61.17 million, with Q1 2025 sustaining 6% growth to $60 million. While earnings missed estimates due to one-time costs (e.g., XCOM RAN product development), Adjusted EBITDA margins held steady at 51%, proving operational resilience.

2. The 5G Africa Play: A Goldmine in the Making

Globalstar’s partnership with Liquid Intelligent Technologies—a telecom giant in Africa and the Middle East—is its crown jewel. The deal grants Liquid exclusive rights to deploy Globalstar’s XCOM RAN private 5G networks across 11.5 MHz of midband spectrum (Band n53), a scarce asset approved by 3GPP.

This spectrum offers four times the capacity of standard 5G, ideal for high-value sectors like mining, manufacturing, and smart cities. By 2025, Liquid aims to blanket remote African and Gulf regions with networks enabling AI-driven automation and IoT applications. With Liquid’s 110,000 km fiber backbone and satellite infrastructure, this isn’t just a software play—it’s a physical network rollout with real-world revenue streams.

3. Insider Confidence Amid Volatility

While some executives sold shares—CEO Paul Jacobs offloaded $107 million worth in March—the largest signal comes from James Monroe III, a legendary contrarian investor. Monroe added $928,000 to his 58.7 million-share stake in May 2025, betting big on the stock’s turnaround. His move contrasts with short-term sellers, many of whom likely executed pre-planned transactions (e.g., trust distributions).

Monroe’s conviction matters. His purchases often presage market turns—think of his bets on Netflix in 2011 or Tesla in 2014. With Globalstar’s shares trading at just 1.5x 2025 revenue guidance, this is a value play with 17% upside to hit 2024’s valuation—and that’s before factoring in 5G’s long-term potential.

The Contrarian Case: Headwinds Are Overblown, Tailwinds Are Real

Bear arguments focus on near-term risks:
- Satellite launch delays: The Aurora-2 mission, critical for IoT expansion, faces a 2025 launch timeline.
- Execution risks: Scaling the Liquid partnership requires flawless execution in politically complex regions.
- Cash burn: Q1’s $190 million CAPEX raised concerns about liquidity.

Yet these risks are priced in. The cash buffer absorbs CAPEX, and the XCOM RAN rollout already generates upfront payments—$22.5 million in Q1 alone—that boost free cash flow. Meanwhile, the $260–285 million 2025 revenue target is achievable: Commercial IoT subscribers rose 4% to 523,000 in Q1, with mass production of two-way IoT modules set for Q2.

Final Call: Buy the Dip, Own the 5G Future

Globalstar’s stock is a rare blend of undervalued assets, strategic partnerships, and insider conviction. With a $1.3 billion market cap, it’s small enough to deliver outsized returns if the Africa 5G rollout hits its stride.

Action Items:
- Buy on dips below $21.50: Target the stock’s 50-day moving average.
- Hold for 12–18 months: Let the 5G rollout and IoT adoption drive valuation multiples.
- Monitor: Cash reserves, XCOM RAN adoption rates, and satellite launch milestones.

This is a stock for investors who see beyond today’s headlines. Globalstar isn’t just surviving—it’s building a 5G-powered future in the world’s fastest-growing telecom markets. The sell-off is a gift.

Risk Disclosure: Satellite launches and regulatory approvals carry execution risks. Investors should consider their risk tolerance before acting.